A Forbes report draws a direct comparison between Bitcoin ETFs and the 20-plus-year history of gold ETFs, arguing that the older market may offer one of the clearest reference points for what Bitcoin investors are living through now.
The report says Bitcoin has had a difficult 2026. It failed to hold the record high above $126,000 reached last year, and the price has fallen more than 50% since last October despite repeated pro-Bitcoin remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump. Even so, several analysts cited in the report said a possible shift in Federal Reserve policy could open the door to a turn in market conditions.
Balchunas points to gold ETF history as a guide
The comparison gained traction as BlackRock’s chief executive issued a new 12-month Bitcoin price forecast. Around the same time, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on X that the 22-year history of gold ETFs may be the closest roadmap available to Bitcoin ETF investors.
According to the report, gold has climbed sharply since the first gold ETF launched in 2004, and its total market capitalization is now approaching $28 trillion. That figure alone has fueled speculation about how much room Bitcoin could have if it follows even part of gold’s path.
Balchunas said gold and Bitcoin are both wrappers around non-yielding stores of value. They do not generate cash flow, and their prices depend far more on investor sentiment than on corporate earnings, bond coupons or sovereign backing.
From breakout rally to long slump
The report revisits the turbulence in gold ETF history. Gold ETFs briefly became the world’s largest ETF in 2011, then went through an eight-year period of weakness before recovering. Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs appear to be moving through a similar script: huge gains, painful pullbacks and a recovery phase that demands unusual patience from investors.
He also pointed to one detail that long-term holders may find encouraging. In his view, each major cycle in gold ETFs eventually pushed the historical peak higher, even after deep setbacks in between.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs changed the market structure
The report says the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 followed more than a decade of pressure from the crypto industry. Once the products launched, Wall Street institutions moved in quickly, and several leading funds became some of the fastest-growing ETFs ever brought to market.
That shift did more than broaden access. It also tied Bitcoin more tightly to institutional flows and made price action more sensitive to subscriptions and redemptions.
Earlier this month, analysts at Bitfinex warned that a “shock” wave of large ETF outflows could derail the current rebound. Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from a level below $57,000 in early July, but the report says traders remain alert to the risk of renewed selling.
IBIT sold nearly 100,000 BTC but still holds more than 733,000
BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant product in the segment. The report says the fund sold nearly 100,000 BTC over recent months to handle redemption pressure, yet it still holds more than 733,000 BTC and manages close to $50 billion in assets.
That snapshot shows how institutional capital can move the market in both directions. Inflows can accelerate rallies. Outflows can quickly reshape sentiment and price action.
Balchunas also highlighted what he called a “spiritual parallel” between gold and Bitcoin. Gold surged into the spotlight and, on one day in 2011, grew larger than SPY, the world’s biggest ETF at the time. IBIT, he said, likewise hit an intraday asset peak of $100 billion on the top in October 2025. In both cases, supply was close to fixed. When demand arrived in concentrated waves, prices exploded. The catch, he said, is that demand does not stay steady and instead comes in bursts.
Institutional demand remains central to the thesis
The report frames the comparison in broader terms. Gold built its long-run status on scarcity, haven demand and broad global acceptance. Bitcoin, for its part, has been shaped by its halving mechanism, decentralized network and rising institutional adoption, all of which have helped support its image as digital gold.
The ETF structure has also lowered the barrier for traditional investors who want Bitcoin exposure without holding the asset directly. That change increases the elasticity of demand, but it also makes the market more dependent on the durability of institutional buying.
Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin’s strongest pillars. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record steady inflows, while more companies are starting to include digital assets in portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has helped ease selling pressure during the recent market pullback,” he said.
Macro conditions and regulation remain in focus
The report says Bitcoin’s next move will be shaped by macro conditions, regulatory developments and institutional behavior. With gold’s market value now near $28 trillion, even a partial move by Bitcoin toward a similar store-of-value role would imply a large upside in valuation terms.
Still, the report does not present that path as smooth. Large price swings remain part of the setup, and the gold comparison is used less as a promise than as a pattern of what this type of asset can look like once institutional products become central to its trading cycle.