Bitcoin has gained 44% this quarter and moved back toward $85,000, its strongest quarterly showing since the fourth quarter of 2024. Holders have started taking profits as the price rises, but on-chain data suggests the pace remains far below what the market saw at earlier cycle tops.
According to on-chain data cited from Bitfinex, recently realized profit in Bitcoin has been about $2.4 billion. Bitfinex wrote on X on Friday: 「$BTC holders just realised $2.4bn in profits. At prior market tops, daily realised profits ran between $7bn and $10bn.」 Measured against that historical range, the current scale of profit-taking is roughly three to four times smaller.
Realized profit remains below levels seen at prior tops
Realized profit is a common on-chain metric. It treats the price at which each Bitcoin last moved as its cost basis, and when that coin moves again at a higher price, the difference is counted as realized profit.
The report gave a simple example: if Bitcoin was bought at $40,000 and later transferred at $84,000, the $44,000 difference would count as realized profit.
Bitfinex said BTC holders had just realized $2.4 billion in profits, while daily realized profits at prior market tops ranged from $7 billion to $10 billion. The article said that gap shows profit-taking is still relatively cautious, with more capital staying in place rather than exiting in size.
It also noted that during the peak phase of the 2021 bull market, daily realized profit above $10 billion appeared multiple times, often alongside a large transfer of supply from long-term holders to short-term traders and exchanges. By comparison, the current $2.4 billion figure looks closer to a healthier round of profit-taking during an ongoing advance than to a blow-off top.
Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.84 billion over six days
While on-chain holders have been selling at a measured pace, Bitcoin ETF money has continued to come in. Citing CoinDesk statistics, the report said Bitcoin ETFs posted $2.84 billion in net inflows over the past six days, exceeding the amount of realized profit taken by holders.
That, according to the article, means institutional demand is currently arriving faster than on-chain profit-taking is creating sell pressure.
For the year to date, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $800 million in net inflows. The report said that earlier in the year, ETFs had faced an outflow gap of nearly $5.8 billion, and the latest figure points to a reversal in direction.
The structure of those inflows also matters, the article said. The money is coming from traditional finance channels through asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity, which makes it different from the behavior of individual on-chain holders. Institutional investors tend to allocate for longer periods rather than take quick profits, giving the market a steadier source of buying support.
Market holds up after the Bitget security incident
The report also said the crypto market went through the $452 million Bitget hack this week, yet large-cap assets including Bitcoin and Ether did not show clear weakness. It took that as a sign that the market is handling exchange security incidents better than in the past.
On the macro side, the recent rise in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields appears to have paused, easing some pressure on risk assets. Oil prices, however, remain volatile because of the situation involving Iran, and developments in the Middle East are still described as an external risk.
Two indicators to watch next
The article said daily realized profit at $2.4 billion still sits in a relatively healthy range, but the next question is whether that number starts rising quickly. If daily realized profit moves toward $5 billion or more in the coming weeks, it could signal that holders are beginning to take profits on a much larger scale, raising the odds of a choppier market or a pullback.
The other key indicator is ETF flow direction. If ETF inflows slow or turn into outflows while holder selling accelerates at the same time, the market would face a double source of pressure: institutional withdrawal and heavier on-chain profit-taking. The report said historical experience shows that combination often appears near the later stage of a bull market.
For now, the picture presented in the report is straightforward: holders are taking profits slowly, ETF money is still coming in, and pressure from traditional finance has eased for the moment. Taken together, those three factors point to a market structure that remains relatively stable in the short term.