Bitcoin spot ETFs began 2026 with a bang, pulling in over $1.16 billion in the first two trading days as analysts cheered resurgent risk appetite. But the narrative has collapsed quickly: data from Farside Investors shows the 11 U.S.-listed ETFs recorded a cumulative net outflow of $1.128 billion over the past three trading days (Jan. 5–7), nearly erasing the early-month inflows.
Year-to-date net flows now stand nearly flat, underscoring a lack of conviction among institutional players. Bitcoin price tumbled from a Monday high of $94,600 to a Thursday low below $89,300, and was hovering near $90,000 at press time. Indices tracking memecoins and DeFi tokens also pulled back from Monday’s peaks.
Rotation, Not Conviction
“ETF flows paint a tactical picture, with periods of inflows followed by modest outflows. This indicates rotation rather than conviction buying,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, in an email to CoinDesk. “Macro conditions have tightened risk appetite as traders look for positive cues.”
The broader risk-off sentiment has seeped into crypto alongside equity markets. Despite being touted as digital gold, Bitcoin has closely tracked the Nasdaq. All eyes are now on the U.S. December nonfarm payrolls report due Friday at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect 55,000 jobs added, down from November’s 64,000 and below the 12-month average of 77,800. The jobless rate is forecast to edge lower to 4.5% from 4.6%, while average hourly earnings likely rose 3.6% year-over-year.
Macro Data Key for Next Move
“A softer labor backdrop could support risk assets, while resilient data may keep crypto and markets range-bound through the week,” said Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs later Friday may add further volatility.
The crypto market remains at a crossroads. Without a clear macro catalyst, institutional flows are likely to stay cautious. Analysts say Bitcoin ETF inflows will remain the key sentiment barometer in the short term, but any sustained rally will require better macro conditions.