Bitcoin is trading around $69,781, down more than 44% from its $126,296 all-time high reached in October 2025. Roughly four months into the current drawdown, fresh data cited from Ecoinometrics suggests institutional demand is still weakening rather than stabilizing, with spot ETF flows continuing to move in the wrong direction.
Spot ETF flows still show persistent pressure
Daily ETF prints have been mixed. Some sessions posted sizable inflows, while others were dominated by selling, but the broader trend remains negative. Over the last 10 trading days, cumulative net flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at about -18,000 BTC. On a dollar basis, this week alone saw $360 million in net outflows. A modest $15.2 million inflow on Friday barely changed the picture.
Ecoinometrics argued that isolated green days do not mark a turn during bearish phases. What matters is sustained capital entering the market over multiple weeks. Without that, short bursts of inflows are little more than noise.
Past 100 days, recoveries rarely snap back fast
The firm compared previous drawdowns in both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 by duration and depth. The pattern it highlighted is simple: corrections that last longer tend to go deeper before a bottom is formed. Bitcoin is now 128 days into this pullback, and at its worst point the decline exceeded 50%.
Historical data shows that once a drawdown moves beyond the 100-day mark, the recovery usually takes months and sometimes longer. A rebound measured in weeks has been uncommon. The Nasdaq 100 is also in a deep drawdown, which matters because Bitcoin has often traded in line with pressured U.S. growth equities rather than breaking away from them.
Strong U.S. data delays the rate-cut case
Macro conditions are not offering much relief either. U.S. retail sales are still tracking their long-term growth trend, and consumer spending has not rolled over. That does not fit a recessionary setup. For Bitcoin, that creates a problem, because a resilient economy gives the Federal Reserve little reason to rush into easing.
The report notes that the Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in January, while markets do not expect the first rate cut before June at the earliest. As long as cuts remain delayed, tighter financial conditions are likely to stay in place, keeping pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
What the market is really watching now
For holders, the main signal is not a one-day ETF inflow or a brief weekend bounce. The key test is whether buying pressure can persist for weeks. Ecoinometrics’ view is that there is still no sign of capital rotating back into risk in a durable way.
In a slow drawdown like this, calling a bottom too early can be costly. For now, the market is still waiting for sustained demand rather than a single positive session.