Bitcoin ETFs staged a sharp turnaround in March after a difficult start to 2026. Following roughly 42,000 BTC in outflows during February, the funds added back about 38,000 BTC over the course of a single month, according to analyst Darkfost. Net flows since January are still negative by around 4,000 BTC, yet the rebound amounts to nearly $2.6 billion returning to these products.
The pace of that recovery stood out. February’s selling weighed on sentiment toward regulated spot Bitcoin exposure, while March brought a notable reversal. Even so, cumulative flows have not fully turned positive, which leaves the broader picture less clear than the one-month headline suggests.
On-chain indicators are sending mixed signals
CoinMarketCap reviewed several on-chain measures and found no clean directional signal. Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.56, placing the asset near fair value. That is well below the 1.42 level seen in January, though it has recovered from the February low of 0.30.
The Sharpe Signal, used to track risk-adjusted return, touched the key 0.50 area on March 17 as Bitcoin approached $75,000. Historically, holding above that threshold has aligned with stronger bullish conditions. Bitcoin has not managed to reclaim that zone on a sustained basis. At the same time, short-term holders have been realizing daily losses since January, with loss-to-profit ratios remaining in the 8:10 range and showing only limited improvement from February.
CoinMarketCap’s Confluence Model, which combines price action, network activity, profitability, and supply signals, currently shows none of its four bull-market triggers active. The market has not produced confirmation of a new upward cycle.
Large holders are pulling BTC off exchanges
Wallet behavior on the network points to continued accumulation by larger players. Over the past week, addresses holding more than $10 million withdrew a combined 4,323 BTC from centralized exchanges. Wallets in the $1 million to $10 million range removed another 1,829 BTC.
That trend contrasts with activity from smaller holders. Addresses with balances between $10,000 and $100,000 have kept posting net deposits to exchanges, a pattern often associated with selling from smaller investors while larger entities absorb supply. The divergence is clear: market participation is split not only by sentiment, but also by wallet size.
Base-building remains the dominant market view
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen pushed back on the idea that traders are broadly overwhelmed by pessimism. In public remarks, he said that narrative is overstated and argued, “Many of those who did not anticipate previous peaks are now searching for reasons to avoid further losses.”
Cowen also pointed to seasonality, saying Bitcoin often forms lows around February in midterm years, then posts countertrend rallies before later corrections. He added that macroeconomic pressure may persist into early 2026. CoinMarketCap described the present phase as “base-building,” with the $75,000 to $78,000 area now serving as a key zone to watch. The upcoming April CPI release is also being monitored as a major macro event for the market.