U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $635 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day withdrawal since January 29, according to data from SoSoValue. The bleeding was not a one-off: over the past five trading sessions, the 11 funds have lost a combined $1.26 billion, reducing total net inflows since their January 2024 launch from $59.76 billion a week ago to $58.5 billion.
BTC Rally Stalls at 200-Day SMA
Bitcoin's rally that lifted prices from $65,000 to above $80,000 has hit a wall. Momentum faded near the 200-day simple moving average (just above $82,000), and the cryptocurrency fell more than 2% over the past 24 hours to trade at $79,400. Analysts blame resurgent inflation fears in the U.S., though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit record highs on Wednesday.
Macro Headwinds Can Override Flows: Institutional View
“Persistently high CPI, a more hawkish interpretation of Fed chair nominee Warsh, or another oil shock could pressure bitcoin even with positive net inflows,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, which oversees over $500 million. “The more useful question from our perspective is not whether the price uptrend will continue, but whether the macro backdrop stays benign enough for flows to do their work.”
Correlation Plunges: ETF Flows No Longer Drive Price
The direct link between ETF flows and bitcoin price has weakened significantly. The 90-day rolling Pearson correlation coefficient between daily BTC returns and daily changes in cumulative ETF net flows stands at just 0.16, statistically insignificant—well below February's peak of 0.68. Still, large redemption events like Wednesday's remain meaningful market signals.