Bitcoin was trading near $68,000 ahead of a $2.5 billion BTC options expiry scheduled for 8:00 a.m. UTC on Feb. 13, putting the $74,000 max pain level at the center of attention. At press time, BTC changed hands at $68,280, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours, with a 7-day range between $64,760 and $71,450.
The broader move still points lower. Bitcoin is down 30% over the last 30 days and now sits about 50% below its $126,080 all-time high from October. February has been marked by a steady decline, and price action has yet to show a clear shift in structure.
Spot and derivatives activity both ease
Trading activity in the spot market has cooled. Bitcoin recorded $47 billion in 24-hour volume, a drop of 11% from the previous day. Derivatives markets also lost some momentum. According to Coinglass, total futures volume stands at $63 billion, down 18%, while open interest slipped 1.73% to $44 billion.
That mix usually points to position reduction rather than aggressive fresh exposure. Traders appear to be trimming risk instead of building large new directional bets. The signal is simple, and it matters on expiry day.
$74,000 max pain becomes the key level into settlement
Data from Deribit shows that $2.5 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.72. That means call contracts outnumber puts. The max pain level is $74,000, the price where the highest number of contracts would expire worthless.
At the same settlement window, $420 million in Ethereum options will also expire. Those contracts carry a put/call ratio of 0.85 and a max pain level of $2,100. As expiry approaches, market makers often hedge by trading spot or futures, and those flows can amplify short-term volatility.
Sometimes price gravitates toward max pain into settlement. In other cases, a strong existing trend overwhelms expiry-related flows. With Bitcoin trading nearly $6,000 below $74,000, the near-term question is whether price gets pulled upward into expiry or continues to weaken.
Technical structure stays soft below $74K
On the daily chart, Bitcoin still looks weak. The asset has been making lower highs and lower lows, while trading below the 50-day moving average near $75,000 and well under the 200-day moving average around $92,500. That alignment keeps momentum tilted to the downside.
Bollinger Bands are widening rather than tightening. Price recently touched the lower band, which often suggests oversold conditions, but that does not automatically mean a reversal is close. In strong downtrends, assets can remain pinned near the lower band longer than many traders expect.
The relative strength index is around 29, deep in oversold territory. Even so, the report notes there is no confirmed bullish divergence. Immediate support sits at $65,000 to $66,000, followed by the psychological $60,000 level. On the upside, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $74,000 to $76,000 to ease pressure, with room toward $80,000 if that area is recovered on a daily close. Until then, the chart remains technically fragile, and options expiry may increase volatility without changing the broader trend by itself.