Bitcoin opened the week with a gain of nearly 1%, but the market’s attention has shifted to a packed U.S. macro calendar. The source points to several events with the potential to move crypto prices, including a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ISM manufacturing data, initial jobless claims, and the latest U.S. employment report.
Powell speech on March 30 could reset rate-cut expectations
The first major item is Powell’s speech on March 30. According to the report, the Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at its recent FOMC meeting, and Powell is expected to maintain a cautious tone. Markets are not expecting the central bank to rush into easing. Some observers cited in the source think the Fed may signal only one to two rate cuts in 2026, rather than a broad shift toward aggressive policy loosening. For Bitcoin, that kind of stance can translate into short-term pressure on risk assets.
Manufacturing PMI and jobless claims will test the cooling trend
On April 1, traders will watch the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The prior reading came in at 52.4, with forecasts calling for a slight dip to 52.3. A reading above 50 still points to economic expansion. In the source article, that setup is described as neutral to slightly positive for crypto, since it suggests the economy remains stable without running too hot.
Then comes initial jobless claims on April 2. Expectations are for roughly 212,000, up from 210,000 a week earlier. A gradual rise in claims usually signals a softer labor market. That matters. If labor conditions cool, traders may increase bets on future rate cuts, and the source notes that such expectations have historically been supportive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
April 3 labor report may shape the week’s final move
The week closes with the U.S. employment and unemployment report on April 3. The article says job growth is expected to slow from 63,000 in February to about 42,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge up from 4.4% to 4.5%. If hiring weakens and unemployment rises, pressure on the Fed to consider earlier rate cuts could build, improving liquidity expectations across risk markets. That mix is often treated as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Even with macro catalysts ahead, downside targets remain in view
The source also says the crypto market is still struggling to build strong momentum. Bitcoin remains below its 2021 all-time high of $69,000, reflecting cautious sentiment. Analyst Willy Woo, using the CVDD Floor Model, said Bitcoin could bottom in a range between $46,000 and $54,000, with model support around $45,500.
The article also cites Polymarket, where the probability of Bitcoin falling to $45,000 by year-end stood at 54%. That leaves the market in a split position: softer U.S. data could improve the case for easing, but downside expectations for BTC have not disappeared. The next set of macro releases may decide which side gains control.