U.S. President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be signed Sunday, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The statement sent a short-term wave of risk appetite across crypto markets, lifting Bitcoin to around $64,213 — up roughly 0.8% from the prior close.
Tehran Rejects Sunday Timeline
Trump wrote on Truth Social that "the Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow" and that the "Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL" right after. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also signaled that the final text had been reached and an electronic signing could occur within 24 hours. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media the memorandum would not be signed Sunday, though it could move forward later. "We will have to wait and see about the exact date," he said, adding "it will not be tomorrow." The conflicting statements keep a cloud of uncertainty over the timeline.
Hormuz Reopening Looms Large
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passed through the strait in 2024. A reopening would ease energy prices, reduce inflation fears, and potentially unlock capital flows into risk-on assets including Bitcoin. Higher energy costs have weighed on global markets for months and added selling pressure during ETF outflows.
Bitcoin Trader Sentiment Mixed
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Pope said a confirmed peace deal could support Bitcoin and other risk assets. "Liquidity will pour back into risk-on assets," he wrote, adding that crypto could benefit after the SpaceX IPO absorbed market attention. But Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged weekly net outflows of about $315.84 million, per SoSoValue data, highlighting persistent capital headwinds. Galaxy Research earlier reported only four of 13 Bitcoin bottom signals have triggered, with a base case floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026. That cautious outlook keeps traders from chasing a rally too aggressively.
The next market reaction hinges on whether the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan align on a concrete signing date. Until then, Bitcoin remains tied to headlines from Hormuz, ETF flows, and wider investor risk appetite. A signed deal might ease one source of pressure, but traders need stronger fund flows before calling a durable recovery. Oil prices and ETF data will be the next checkpoints for short-term crypto positioning.