Bitcoin’s rebound from its February low is improving, but on-chain data suggests the market is not yet out of danger. According to CryptoQuant, BTC was trading near $81,400 after recovering from the $62,000 area, yet a meaningful recovery still depends on whether price can break through and hold above $88,880.
Three resistance bands stand above the market
CryptoQuant identified three major realized price levels above Bitcoin’s current price, each tied to investor groups that are still underwater. The first and most immediate resistance sits near $88,880, linked to holders who bought within the last three to six months. A second cluster appears around $93,450, associated with the 12- to 18-month cohort. The largest realized price band is near $111,850, representing buyers who entered six to 12 months ago.
These levels matter because they mark break-even zones for investors trapped during Bitcoin’s late-2025 correction. As price approaches those areas, some holders may be more inclined to sell into strength in order to exit flat, creating renewed distribution pressure. For that reason, CryptoQuant argues that simply touching $88,880 is not enough. Bitcoin needs to reclaim that level and sustain trading above it to support the case for a broader market bottom.
Recovery has strengthened, but technical risks remain
Bitcoin had traded above $100,000 before entering a sharp correction in November 2025. Selling accelerated into early February 2026, pushing BTC toward the $62,000 support zone. Since then, buyers have stepped back in, helping the asset recover steadily through March and April. The rebound has been marked by higher lows and higher highs, indicating a more constructive structure than during earlier recovery attempts.
The asset has also reclaimed its 50-day moving average near $78,900 and continued to hold above the key $80,000 psychological level. Trading volume increased moderately during the latest rebound, suggesting stronger market participation than in prior rallies.
Still, a notable warning remains on the chart. In February, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a classic death cross, a signal often associated with medium-term downside momentum. At present, the 200-day moving average near $75,300 continues to act as a major long-term support level. Sustained trading above both moving averages would strengthen the case for a more durable recovery.
The $85K–$88K area remains a key battleground
Even with momentum improving, rallies into the $85,000 to $88,000 region are still likely to face selling from holders seeking break-even exits. That means Bitcoin may have moved away from its weakest phase, but it has not yet fully cleared the overhead supply created during the correction.
Based on CryptoQuant’s data, $88,880 remains the key validation level for bulls. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold that price, the most recent underwater cohort would move back into profit, helping to reduce immediate sell pressure and potentially opening the door to a challenge of the higher resistance bands above.