Bitcoin is seeing a fresh split between accumulation and distribution. Analyst Darkfost said long-term holder wallets added roughly 316,000 BTC over the past 30 days, pushing the total supply held by this group to about 15.26 million BTC. Even with that steady buildup, Bitcoin has been trading close to the $78,000 area, where price action remains fragile.
Long-term holder supply climbs back to prior levels
Darkfost said the metric has returned to levels last seen in August 2025. That rebound stands in sharp contrast to late November, when long-term holder supply fell by about 650,000 BTC. He also said some investors who accumulated Bitcoin nearly six months ago are still holding their positions. In the same thread, he pointed to the movement of around 800,000 BTC from Coinbase, noting those coins will officially become older than six months on May 23.
Exchange outflows rose, but selling pressure did not disappear
On-chain data showed several heavy exchange outflows between May 7 and May 15, a sign that accumulation activity continued during the period. One outflow spike approached negative $95 million, and another came close to negative $90 million. During that stretch, Bitcoin traded between roughly $81,000 and $78,000.
Still, the flow picture was mixed. Repeated inflow spikes above $30 million and $60 million suggested that profit-taking repeatedly interrupted the broader accumulation trend. Price softened as well. After reaching near $82,500 earlier in the period, BTC was trading around $78,000 to $78,500 by May 16 and May 17.
Analyst compares current setup with March 2022
Ali said average realized profit margins among traders have climbed to 17%. He compared the current market structure with March 2022, when Bitcoin was also testing its 200-day moving average as resistance. According to him, that alignment marked a local top before a longer decline followed.
For now, the market is still pinned between nearby technical levels. Resistance is seen in the $80,000 to $81,000 range, while $78,000 remains the immediate support zone. Despite continued exchange outflows, trading has stayed cautious, and volatility picked up across several sessions. The latest exchange flow data points to a market where long-term accumulation is colliding with rising profit-taking pressure.