Bitcoin ran into heavy resistance near $80,000, with profit-taking pressure and macro headwinds hitting at the same time. Market analysis said short-term holders have a cost basis clustered around that level, which raises the chance of selling once price approaches or briefly moves above it.
Luke Deans, senior research assistant at Bitwise, said Bitcoin has managed to stay slightly above flat, but the area around $80,000 is where short-term investors may look to cash out. That makes any clean breakout harder to sustain.
Oil at $110, rising yields, and Fed splits add pressure
The resistance is not only technical. Ahead of the latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, inflation data, the global energy market turned more fragile as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faced disruption. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $110, adding another layer of stress to risk assets already dealing with higher Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve also added uncertainty. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but the decision drew four dissenting votes, the highest number since 1992. That split showed deep disagreement inside the Fed over whether easier policy should return, leaving traders with less confidence about the rate path ahead.
Open interest drops while liquidations top $500 million
Derivatives data showed a defensive turn. Futures open interest fell more than 2% in 24 hours to $119 billion, while trading volume jumped 26% to $208 billion. That mix often points to positions being closed rather than fresh capital entering the market.
Liquidation figures were also notable. More than $500 million in leveraged positions were wiped out across the market, with the bulk of that total coming from long bets. The move suggested bullish traders were caught off guard by weakness tied to higher Treasury yields.
Large put spread points to $65,000 as implied volatility falls
According to Amberdata, block options flow included a large put spread tied to $72,000 and $65,000 strike prices. The structure indicates that a whale-sized trader is positioning for Bitcoin to slide back toward $65,000 or lower.
At the same time, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, dropped to 41%, the lowest level since Jan. 29. Analysts warned that the market may be growing numb to macro negatives even as liquidity stays thin and conviction remains weak. Correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin has also climbed to 97%, leaving alternative tokens exposed if Bitcoin extends its decline.