Global M2 money supply has climbed by about 12% in recent months, but Bitcoin has moved the other way, dropping 35% over the same period. That split is drawing renewed attention because Bitcoin has often traded in line with broad liquidity growth. This time, the relationship has weakened sharply.
Research from CF Benchmarks puts Bitcoin’s fair value at roughly $136,000 when measured against its historical connection to M2. The market price, by contrast, is sitting near $70,000. Gabe Selby, who leads the research team, said the gap between modeled value and spot price is the widest on record. In earlier periods, those gaps tended to close over time. Now they are getting larger.
Higher rates are pulling capital away from risk assets
Analysts cited two main forces behind the disconnect: rising interest rates and higher energy costs. The first is straightforward. Elevated rates have reduced appetite for risk, and investors have shifted toward government bonds that now offer stronger yields. Bitcoin, still treated by most market participants as a high-risk asset, has seen demand weaken in that environment.
The implication is clear. Growth in global liquidity does not automatically translate into stronger crypto prices when the return on safer assets has improved. Capital is being repriced, and Bitcoin is competing with instruments that did not offer the same income profile during earlier cycles.
Mining economics add steady selling pressure
The second pressure point is the cost of energy. Electricity is the largest operating expense for many miners, and rising power prices have made mining less profitable. To keep operations running, some miners have had to sell Bitcoin holdings, adding extra supply to the market.
The article quotes a market view that miners are under severe strain: energy costs are surging, production costs are rising with them, margins are getting squeezed, and forced selling follows. That matters because this kind of selling is not just a brief sentiment-driven event. It acts as a structural drag and has limited Bitcoin’s upside in recent months.
Spot ETF inflows have not removed short-term fragility
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs show the same tension. Over the last seven sessions, total inflows reached $1.16 billion. Even so, one trading day recorded $129 million in outflows, and Bitcoin fell 4% that day. The reaction points to a market that is still highly sensitive to changes in capital flows and macro sentiment.
In other words, aggregate inflows alone have not been enough to cancel out the effects of miner selling and tighter financial conditions. Money is still entering the products, but price action remains unstable.
$69,000 to $70,000 is now the key support zone
Specialists cited in the report see $69,000 to $70,000 as the critical near-term support range. A break below that level could open the way toward $60,000. On the upside, a move above $72,000 would suggest the gap between money-supply growth and Bitcoin valuation is starting to narrow.
For now, the market is watching a simple but unusual setup: global liquidity is expanding, yet Bitcoin is not tracking that expansion. Whether the two reconnect will depend on rates, energy costs, and the direction of capital flows.