Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 mark in the final days of June, posting its steepest monthly decline since mid-2022. The cryptocurrency has lost 33% of its value since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 gained over 9% in the same period. From its all-time high in October, Bitcoin's drawdown now stands at approximately 52%.
Hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions weigh
Analysts attribute the selling pressure to forced liquidations and waning risk appetite. The Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance after its June meeting, raising the likelihood of additional rate hikes before year-end. Higher interest rates have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets, while escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed investors toward caution.
ETF outflows stretch to eighth week
Net outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs extended into an eighth consecutive week. According to SoSoValue data, investors pulled $231.1 million from these funds on Monday alone. Over June, the 13 Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US registered total outflows exceeding $4 billion, the largest monthly exit since their launch in January 2024. Cumulative ETF outflows since late April have approached $6.7 billion. Uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, a proposed framework to regulate the US crypto market, was flagged as a factor compounding investor hesitation.
MicroStrategy, which holds one of the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves, announced Monday it had secured over $1 billion in funding. The company specified these funds are meant to bolster cash reserves—not for additional Bitcoin purchases. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that this move helps ease concerns over MicroStrategy's financial resilience, distinguishing the current cycle from previous periods and underlining the absence of major collapses caused by excessive leverage or misconduct so far.
On-chain metric flashes historic signal
Crypto analyst Ali Charts highlighted a rare crossover in on-chain data: the volume of Bitcoin held at a loss has risen to 10.45 million BTC, surpassing the 9.60 million BTC held at a profit. This marks the first time in the current cycle that coins held at a loss outnumber those held at a gain. Ali Charts pointed out that this crossover previously emerged only at major market cycle bottoms in 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2020, after which strong bull runs followed.
Market analyst Barchart reported that Bitcoin closed below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023, a technical milestone traditionally seen as a potential accumulation opportunity. Nonetheless, there is no clear consensus on whether a short-term market bottom has been reached. David Grider, a director at Finality Capital Partners, cautioned that the bottom may not arrive before autumn, suggesting a plausible target range of $40,000 to $45,000.