Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000, putting the next major support area in focus. Data cited by crypto.news showed BTC down 4.8% over the past seven days. At the time of writing, it traded at $69,385, leaving it nearly 29% below its year-to-date high of around $97,500 and about 45% off its all-time high.
Oil risk and inflation concerns are feeding risk aversion
The pressure on Bitcoin is coming less from crypto-specific factors and more from the macro picture. The report said Iran had shifted its retaliation strategy in the Middle East from reciprocal strikes to continuous attacks on the interests of its adversaries. Tehran also said it would keep blocking ships carrying oil to Israel and the United States from using the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles millions of barrels of crude each day.
The same report said Iran aims to push crude prices as high as $200. If energy prices keep rising, inflation pressure could build again across global markets, with the U.S. especially exposed to energy shocks. In that setting, investors often reduce exposure to volatile assets and rotate toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is being caught in that shift.
Core CPI met expectations, but rate-cut hopes keep fading
U.S. February core CPI came in line with market expectations, but that did little to support the case for easier policy. Instead, the market is leaning toward a longer period of elevated interest rates. If conflict-driven energy costs continue to rise, inflation could stay sticky and reduce the chance of a policy pivot this year.
According to CME FedWatch, there is a 99.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the March FOMC meeting, with the current target rate at 350 to 375 basis points. The odds of an April rate cut were just 10.9% at the time of writing, down from 21% a month earlier. That repricing shows how quickly expectations for near-term easing have cooled.
The article also noted that the February inflation print did not fully capture the recent surge in oil prices. If energy costs continue climbing, the Fed could face a more hawkish setup in coming weeks.
Rising Treasury yields and a fragile technical setup
Another headwind is the move higher in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Bond markets have been adjusting to inflation pressure, and higher sovereign yields make fixed-income returns look more attractive relative to the volatility tied to digital assets.
On the chart, traders are closely watching $68,500 after Bitcoin slipped back below $70,000. The report said persistent selling pressure leaves the short-term bias tilted lower, with a possible retracement toward the $65,000 support zone if global conditions do not stabilize. Below that, the market is also watching the $60,000 level.
On the 4-hour chart, momentum indicators are starting to weaken. MACD is close to confirming a bearish crossover, while RSI has been trending lower after reaching overbought territory. Until Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000, the $65,000 area is likely to remain the next key level on traders’ radar.