Bitcoin has dropped below $74,000, breaking out of a narrow trading range to the downside and putting fresh pressure on crypto markets. With liquidations reaching the billion-dollar level and macro uncertainty still hanging over risk assets, traders are reassessing how far this pullback could run.
Breakdown from range shifts focus to lower price targets
The report said Bitcoin had a path toward $120,000 if it had cleared $98,000 and $101,000. That move never came. Instead, the market broke lower, with downside levels at $81,000 and $74,000 now in play, leading some analysts to watch $56,000 as the next major target.
SOPR alert points to renewed selling at a loss
Analyst Jelle highlighted a warning from the SOPR indicator, saying the chart shows market participants are once again selling at a loss. Small red dips on SOPR often appear near local lows, but long stretches in red have historically been tied to bear-market conditions. He added that deeper red readings have generally offered stronger buying opportunities, though the present signal suggests loss-driven selling is still active.
Delayed U.S. reports keep markets on edge
Macro scheduling changes added another layer of uncertainty. The Bureau of Labor Statistics moved the January Non-Farm Payrolls release to February 11, while the January CPI report was postponed to February 13. The article linked the delay in this week’s employment data to a partial government shutdown. It also noted that a Supreme Court tariff decision is expected by February 20. Those dates leave markets facing several closely packed catalysts over the coming days.
Long-term holder stress has not reached past bottom zones
On-Chain Mind argued that price alone does not confirm whether Bitcoin has reached a bottom. Its focus is on long-term holders and whether that cohort has moved into broad loss. Historical peaks in LTH Risk were listed at 95% in 2015, 83% in 2019, 70% during the COVID crash, and 85% in 2022. According to the same analysis, once the measure rises above 55% to 60%, the market tends to move quickly toward bottom territory.
That reading is currently around 37%. On-Chain Mind said that if the pattern of descending peaks continues and the metric eventually pushes above 70%, it would show extreme pressure even on the strongest hands. In past cycles, that condition has been a prerequisite for a durable bottom, which is why the analysis does not treat the current level as final capitulation.