Bitcoin fell below $76,000 as Fed week began, putting short-term market direction back in focus. Crypto analyst Roman Trading said he has stayed bearish on Bitcoin since the fourth quarter of 2025, and that view has so far matched the market’s path.
In his latest commentary, Roman Trading kept that negative stance. He said the existing bearish trend, together with low trading volume, continues to support downside pressure. At the same time, he flagged bullish divergences appearing during the current pullback, paired with weak volume, which in his view makes daily closes more important before taking positions. His expectation is that Bitcoin may trade sideways for a while and then see a sharper decline near the end of May.
Weak volume keeps the short-term setup fragile
Roman Trading added that he had previously expected volume to expand on any decline, which is why he is more cautious under current conditions. The chart setup remains soft, but he did not describe it as a straight one-way move. Confirmation, in his view, still depends on how the daily candles close.
He also pointed to negotiations involving Iran as a market variable. Any sign of a positive outcome, he said, could send Bitcoin quickly back above the $80,000 level. That possibility has not changed his bearish base case, but it leaves the market highly sensitive around major price thresholds.
Stocks keep rising even with oil above $100
While crypto faces pressure, global equities have continued to post fresh highs even with hostilities involving Iran unresolved and crude oil holding above $100 per barrel. The report said the rush into artificial intelligence has become strong enough that many investors are treating other risks as background noise, including during earnings week.
Financial analysis platform The Kobeissi Letter said the seven largest tech companies are on track to invest more than $600 billion in artificial intelligence this year. It also argued that valuations in major tech names have not become broadly stretched despite the rally. At the March 30 low, the S&P 500 Information Technology Index traded at only a 4% forward P/E premium to the S&P 500, the narrowest gap since January 2019. According to the same note, major tech stocks became cheaper than the S&P 500 average for the first time since 2017.
As one example, Nvidia was described as trading near record highs at roughly 26x forward earnings, compared with 43x for Walmart and 46x for Costco. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.40%, while rate cuts were seen as pushed out to 2027. In that setting, capital flows into technology and AI have kept stocks supported, even as Bitcoin continues to face its own near-term uncertainty.