Bitcoin dropped about 3% to $70,960 after failed talks between the US and Iran fueled broader risk-off moves. Price action pointed to sharp selling pressure, yet on-chain data showed a different layer of market behavior: smaller traders appeared to be exiting faster, while large holders and long-term investors stayed engaged during the sell-off.
Binance records net outflows as coins leave exchanges
One of the clearest signals came from Binance. The 30-day simple moving average of Bitcoin netflows on the exchange stood near -1,350 BTC, valued in the report at roughly $96 million. Persistent net outflows from a major exchange often suggest a shift toward self-custody or a longer holding horizon rather than immediate sale preparation.
Global Bitcoin exchange reserves also fell to about 2.69 million BTC, moving below the seven-day average. During the peak of market uncertainty, around 4,500 BTC, worth about $316 million, was transferred into cold storage. That pattern is commonly associated with accumulation. The market sold off, but coins were also leaving trading venues.
Short-term holders sold near breakeven
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, across all exchanges was reported at 1.0018, only slightly above breakeven. That suggests many recent sellers were closing positions at or near cost instead of taking meaningful profits, a sign of defensive positioning during volatility.
According to the analysis cited in the report, loss realization dominated over the last 182 days, with 148 days — or 81.32% — recorded below 1.00. The implication was straightforward: short-term participants were providing liquidity into weakness, while stronger hands were willing to absorb it.
Whale inflows to Binance slip below $3 billion
A separate assessment from analyst Amr Taha focused on the behavior of the largest Bitcoin holders. The 30-day whale inflow to Binance fell to $2.96 billion, dropping below the $3 billion threshold for the first time since June 2025. Lower whale inflows to exchanges usually indicate reduced intent to sell large amounts in the near term.
At the same time, the 30-day Realized Cap Change for long-term holders climbed to $49 billion on April 9, matching highs seen since March 26. Short-term holder Realized Cap Change moved the other way, falling to -$54 billion, its third reading below -$50 billion since early March. Taken together, the data pointed to a redistribution phase in which short-term holders sold into pressure and longer-term investors absorbed supply.
Near-term direction for Bitcoin now depends in part on whether tensions between the US and Iran continue to drive volatility or give way to diplomatic movement.