Bitcoin’s move back above $87,000 has reopened a familiar question in the market: is this a rebound, or the start of a reversal?
On Sept. 21, BTC rose as high as $87,392, its highest level since Jan. 29. From the July 1 low of $57,803, the rebound now exceeds 50%. Price is currently trading above the high-volume cost zone between $85,000 and $86,500.
Bitfinex, however, is not calling this a new bull market yet. The exchange says the setup looks closer to an early transition from a bear market into a new cycle than to a fully confirmed bull phase.
Its reasoning is rooted in prior cycles. In the last two market cycles, bear-market rallies that never turned into fresh bull runs were still able to recover about 50% from their lows. Price appreciation alone, then, is not enough to separate a true cycle turn from a repair rally. What matters more is whether capital flows and on-chain positioning are shifting at the same time.
On-chain metrics are improving, but the turn is not fully confirmed
The first metric to show a clear improvement is supply in profit.
As of Sept. 22, about 78.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit, up sharply from 63% on Sept. 17. In past cycles, the area around 75% has often acted as an important dividing line. During bear-market rebounds, the metric can briefly move above 70%, only to fall back as profit-taking returns. In a genuine bull market, supply in profit usually holds above 75% for a longer stretch and gradually moves toward 90%.
That makes Bitcoin’s next meaningful pullback especially important. If the share of supply in profit stays above 75% during a decline, it would suggest that newly profitable holders are not rushing to sell. If it drops back below 75%, the move may still look like a rally that gets sold into.
Another key metric, MVRV, is now around 1.62, well above the July low of 1.09 but still below the long-term average of roughly 1.8. Historically, once Bitcoin enters a real bull phase, MVRV tends to break above that long-term average and remain there. Based on the current realized price, Bitfinex says that long-term average corresponds to about $95,000.
Short-term holder MVRV is around 1.2, implying an average short-term holder cost basis near $71,763. Bitfinex describes that level as a warm region, meaning the market has clearly recovered but has not yet entered an obviously overheated phase.
Past market behavior suggests that when this metric rises to 1.3-1.4, recent buyers usually show a stronger tendency to take profits. Under the current cost structure, that would imply a BTC price above roughly $93,000.
In other words, the present on-chain picture does not resemble a market top. It looks more like a trend that is forming but has not been fully validated.
This time, ETF and corporate demand returned together
Compared with the breakout seen earlier in September, the biggest change in this move is on the demand side.
On Sept. 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $999 million in net inflows, the largest single-day inflow since Oct. 6, 2025. On Sept. 22, they added another $714.7 million. Across the four trading days from Sept. 17 to Sept. 22, ETFs absorbed about $2.31 billion, equal to roughly 27,900 BTC.
At the current pace of about 450 newly issued BTC per day, that amounts to around 62 days of new supply.
Corporate balance-sheet buying also resumed over the same period. Strategy bought 950 BTC in the week through Sept. 20 at an average price of $79,670, its first increase in holdings in three weeks. Strive bought 1,355 BTC between Sept. 14 and Sept. 18 at an average cost of $79,475.
Together, those two companies bought 2,305 BTC in one week. For comparison, all listed companies with Bitcoin treasury exposure absorbed about 5,900 BTC combined over the previous three months.
What matters even more is where those buyers now stand. As BTC kept rising, the aggregate break-even level for ETF investors moved back to about $86,000, while the corporate holding cost basis stood near $80,500. For the first time this year, both ETF investors and corporate holders are back in profit at the same time.
Bitfinex says that is the key variable from here. If these buyers only step in when price falls below their cost basis, they look more like dip buyers. If ETFs and corporations keep buying while already in profit, and while price continues to rise, that demand starts to look structural rather than opportunistic.
$85,000 to $86,500 has become the new cost cluster
Those inflows are also changing Bitcoin’s on-chain cost distribution.
A large amount of supply had previously clustered around $80,500 to $82,500, but recent trading has reduced the concentration there. At the same time, a new high-volume cost zone has formed between $85,000 and $86,500, where about 633,000 BTC are now concentrated. That is the largest dense band in the current on-chain cost distribution.
That suggests marginal buyers in this rally, especially ETF and corporate buyers, are building positions above $85,000.
As a result, the $85,000-$86,500 area is shifting from prior resistance into structural support. If that zone holds, the recent advance is easier to read as market acceptance of higher prices rather than a brief spike followed by a fade.
Altcoins are participating, but that still falls short of a confirmed alt season
Capital has also started to spread into altcoins.
From Sept. 18 to Sept. 22, all 35 major non-BTC trading pairs tracked by Bitfinex moved higher, with a median gain of 12%, well above Bitcoin’s roughly 6.6% rise over the same period. AVAX rose 38%, BCH gained 35%, SUI and HBAR each climbed about 25%, while ETH and SOL advanced 5.5% and 5.2%, respectively. On Sept. 22, Bitfinex’s Altcoin Season Indicator also turned positive for the first time since January.
Bitfinex still stops short of calling that a true alt season. The real test, it says, will come during Bitcoin’s first meaningful pullback. If BTC falls 3%-4% and altcoins remain relatively firm, that would point to more genuine spot demand. If the average altcoin decline widens again to more than 1.4 times Bitcoin’s drop, the earlier gains would still look heavily driven by leverage.
Rates have not done much to help, so institutional follow-through matters more
One point Bitfinex highlights is that Bitcoin’s latest breakout did not come with a clear drop in interest rates.
Between Sept. 18 and Sept. 22, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield was broadly steady at 4.76%, while the 10-year yield edged down only slightly from 5.01% to 4.96%. Over the same stretch, BTC rose 6.6%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and gold.
That suggests the latest leg higher was driven more by crypto-native inflows than by a sudden improvement in the macro rate backdrop.
The flip side is that higher yields remain a risk. Bitfinex says that if the U.S. 2-year yield climbs back above 4.8%, or if the market materially raises expectations for another rate hike in October, macro pressure could again outweigh ETF and corporate flows.
The next three signals to watch
Based on current data, Bitcoin has clearly moved away from the weak conditions seen in July, but it is still some distance from a confirmed new bull market. Bitfinex describes the market as being in an early transition stage: some indicators already show early bull-market traits, but long-term capital and on-chain metrics have not all confirmed the shift.
The three signals it says matter most now are:
- whether supply in profit can stay above 75%;
- whether long-term holders re-enter a profit-taking phase;
- whether ETF and corporate buyers keep adding above their cost basis.
In the short term, $85,000 to $86,500 is the most important price zone. If ETF inflows remain positive, perpetual funding rates stay neutral, and BTC holds above that cost area, the next move could be a test of $90,000.
If that zone breaks, the next layer of support sits near $80,500. If price continues lower through $81,300 while ETF flows turn negative again and altcoins see a deeper catch-down move, Bitfinex says the structure behind the breakout would start to weaken.
That leaves the market with a more useful question than whether the bull market has already arrived. Now that BTC is back above the institutional cost line, will those buyers keep buying? If the answer is yes, this move has a path to evolve from a bear-market repair into a broader trend cycle.