Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on July 15 after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data pushed traders to scale back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, sparking a broad rebound in risk assets.
U.S. headline consumer price index inflation slowed to 3.5% in June from 4.2%, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6% from 2.9%. After the data, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike this month dropped to 13% from 43%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell by 6 basis points.
Mena sees room for a move toward $70,000 and $75,000
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said Bitcoin broke above $63,000 within minutes of the inflation release. He described the report as the push Bitcoin needed after moving through $64,000 and testing $66,000.
Mena added that over the past three years, Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 2.8% whenever CPI came in below expectations. In his view, if Bitcoin can decisively clear $66,000, it could challenge $70,000 by the end of the month and even reach $75,000.
He also said that if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran do not worsen, the current fundamental backdrop could support a surge to $100,000 by quarter-end. By late this year or early 2027, he said, Bitcoin could even retest its record high of $126,000.
Crypto market advances broadly
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,124, up 3.7% over the past 24 hours and 3.6% over the past week, with total market trading volume at $31 billion.
Ether outperformed, rising 5.3% on the day to $1,887 and gaining 7.3% over the past seven trading days.
- HYPE rose 5.3% to $67.13
- XRP gained 3.3% to $1.11
- SOL advanced 3.8% to $78.36
- BNB added 1.8% to $581.32
Why lower rate pressure matters for crypto
The report said higher interest rates tend to weigh on crypto because cash and U.S. Treasuries offer stable and attractive returns, reducing the appeal of holding more volatile assets such as Bitcoin. Slower inflation, by contrast, lowers the need for additional Fed tightening and can draw capital back into equities and cryptocurrencies.
Oil rises as geopolitical tensions stay in focus, Asian stocks rally
Geopolitics also remained part of the macro picture. After U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further military action against Iran and the U.S. moved again to block Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose 1% and moved above $85 a barrel, marking a third straight session of gains.
Equities also jumped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.3%, its biggest one-day gain in nearly a month, led by technology shares. South Korea’s Kospi surged 8.2%. SK Hynix ADRs jumped 27%, and the company’s Seoul-listed shares rose 13%.
CoinEx analyst flags September FOMC as the next major test
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, said Bitcoin remains a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than a true macro hedge.
He said the latest CPI data reduced near-term downside pressure, but not enough to support a sustained breakout. Core CPI may have fallen to 2.6%, but it is still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which in his view gives policymakers more room to hold rates steady rather than a reason to cut immediately.
Ko said the next real macro test will come at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September. Until then, the direction of the U.S. dollar and whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can keep their momentum will be key signals for the crypto market.