Bitcoin may already have put in its latest long-term floor, according to a classic trend indicator highlighted by analyst Willy Woo. Cointelegraph reported that the Fisher Transform produced a monthly bullish crossover in August, a signal that has appeared only four times in Bitcoin’s history.
Woo said the previous three monthly crossovers all came at bear-market bottoms and did so without fakeouts. One of those instances came in late 2022, when the Fisher Transform indicator reached -3.83.
Woo points to a cleaner Bitcoin reversal setup
In an X thread posted on Friday, Woo drew attention to readings from the Fisher Transform, a price-trend analysis tool created in 2002.
The indicator smooths price action to make trend strength easier to read. Because market prices tend to spend more time near extreme values than ordinary statistical data, the Fisher Transform applies a log-based transformation to correct for that behavior.
It is built from two lines, the Fisher line and the trigger line, both of which fluctuate around a zero-centered scale. The trigger line is derived from the Fisher line and is plotted with a one-period delay.
Woo’s Bitcoin chart shows that on the monthly timeframe, a sharp upward reversal in Fisher, where the two lines cross, has matched bear-market bottoms.
He wrote: 「BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record.」
The latest cross took place in July at -2.26. If the pattern continues to follow prior examples, history suggests BTC/USD could begin a new macro uptrend.
Woo did not present the signal as a straight-line call higher. He said price could still consolidate and even continue lower. He pointed to a similar pattern seen during bull markets, when Fisher produced a bearish crossover before later printing a fresh bullish one.
His explanation centers on market participation. During long-term Bitcoin uptrends, speculative traders are more active and more sensitive to short-term price moves, which can distort momentum. Near bear-market bottoms, those traders are mostly absent, making Fisher bottom signals more reliable.
Woo added: 「When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here.」
Weekly bullish divergence echoes the 2022 bear-market endgame
The weekly chart shows another bullish Fisher structure still developing through 2026, according to the report.
On that timeframe, the indicator hit a swing low of -2.85 at the end of December last year, while BTC/USD was still trading around $90,000.
Since then, Fisher has posted a series of higher lows while price itself has made lower lows, creating a bullish divergence. The same pattern appeared in 2022, when a bullish divergence in Fisher accompanied the final six months of Bitcoin’s previous bear market.
Even though several onchain metrics have flashed bear-market reversal signals in recent months, there is still doubt over whether Bitcoin’s 21-month low near $57,000 on July 1 really marked a new cycle bottom.
Last week, Woo also said buyer interest at those lows did not look typical. Bid-side activity suggested that only a small number of large-volume investors were accumulating at the time.