This week, Bitcoin is in the final stage of a five-wave corrective pattern. The formation point of "Endpoint 44" will determine the short-term direction — if it forms above $58,110, a strong technical rebound is likely; if below without bullish divergence, further downside risk remains. We have prepared three trading scenarios (A/B/C), maintaining a 20% medium-term short position and 30% short-term position for spread trading. Meanwhile, HYPE has completed a five-wave correction from its high of $76.94 and is now in the 55-56 wave segment. If "Endpoint 56" holds above the prior low, a double-bottom formation would increase the probability of a rebound. Entering light long positions near the support zone with strict 30% position sizing is recommended.
Bitcoin Hourly Structure Analysis
As shown in Figure 1, last week's analysis noted that waves (40-41) represented a retest of the broken lower trendline of the short-term ascending channel. Failure to reclaim the channel triggered a decline to the $59,100 support, ultimately reaching a low of $58,110 before finding temporary support. On the 4-hour chart, the oversold rebound from the June 6 low at $59,100 ended at "Endpoint 39" ($67,300).
Figure 2 illustrates a clear five-wave corrective structure from Endpoint 39 to Endpoint 44, with wave (43-44) currently in progress. The location of Endpoint 44 is critical: if above $58,110, a strong technical rebound is expected, leading to a wide-range consolidation; if below $58,110 with momentum bullish divergence, a rebound is possible but weaker; if below $58,110 without divergence, further breakdown is likely. Our quantitative model assigns higher probability to the first two scenarios.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance: First zone $60,900–$62,300 (previous swing high/low area), second $65,500 (prior resistance), third $67,300–$69,500. Support: Primary at $58,110; below that, the $59,100 level becomes critical support.
This Week's Trading Strategy
Medium-term: As shown in Figure 3, price has decisively broken below the "bull-bear channel," confirming a bearish market structure. Maintain 20% short position.
Short-term: Use 30% position with stop-losses to trade spreads on 30/60-minute timeframes. We have pre-defined three scenarios (A/B/C) to dynamically adapt to market changes.
HYPE Hourly Analysis and Strategy
Figure 4 shows HYPE's five-wave correction from the June 16 high of $76.94 (Endpoint 51): waves 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, and 55-56. Price is currently in the 55-56 leg. The formation of Endpoint 56 is key — our model indicates a high probability that it will form above the prior low, creating a double bottom. Resistance: $65.5 and $71.5. Support: Above $58.8, and deeper at $52–$54. Strategy: When HYPE stabilizes in the support zone with confirmation from two quantitative models, consider light long positions (max 30% position) with strict stop-losses.
Last Week's Trade Verification
Using our proprietary spread-trading and momentum-quant models, we executed two short trades last week for a total profit of 6.21% (1x leverage). First trade: short at $64,530 (15% position), closed at $62,474 (+3.18%). Second trade: short at $62,679 (15% position), closed at $60,775 (+3.03%). Risk disclaimer: Financial markets are volatile; all analysis and strategies require dynamic adjustment. This content is purely personal technical analysis for trading journal purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk.