Bitcoin: Five-Wave Correction Nears End, Direction Hinges on Point 44
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin's oversold bounce from the June 6 low of 59,100 ended at point 39 (67,300). Since then, the market has entered a clear five-wave corrective structure (points 39 through 44), currently executing the final leg — waves 43-44. The eventual level of point 44 will determine short-term direction: if it closes above 58,110, a technically-driven bounce is likely, followed by wide-range consolidation; if it falls below 58,110 but shows positive momentum divergence, a bounce is still possible but with uncertain strength; if it breaks below without divergence, further breakdown is probable. The proprietary quantitative model assigns higher probability to the first two scenarios.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance: Zone 1 — 60,900–62,300 (prior swing high/low); Zone 2 — 65,500; Zone 3 — 67,300–69,500. Support: Watch 58,110 (last week's low) and the 57,000 area.
Trading Plan: Maintain 20% Mid-Term Short, 30% for Short-Term Scalping
Mid-term: Price has broken below the Bull/Bear channel, confirming a bearish structure. The mid-term short position remains at ~20% without adjustment. Short-term: Use 30% position with 30/60-minute charts for scalping, setting stops based on support/resistance. Three contingency plans (A/B/C) are prepared: A (point 44 > 58,110 with divergence) — go long to first resistance; B (point 44 < 58,110 but divergence) — light long for quick profit; C (breakdown without divergence) — add to short or stay flat.
HYPE: Five-Wave Correction in Final Stage, Light L on Support
HYPE's decline from the June 16 high of 76.94 (point 51) has developed into a five-wave structure on 4H (51-52 to 55-56). The price is now in wave 55-56. Whether point 56 forms a double bottom above the prior low (likely the 52–54 zone) is critical for a bounce. When HYPE stabilizes above 58.8 or deeper into 52–54 with bottom signals from the proprietary momentum and spread models, a light long position (max 30% of capital) can be considered with strict stop-loss. Resistance: 65.5 and 71.5.
Last Week's Trades: Two Short Scalps Returned 6.21%
Executing the system precisely, two short trades (1x leverage) were taken: first opened at 64,530 with 15% size, closed at 62,474 for +3.18%; second opened at 62,679 (15%), closed at 60,775 for +3.03%. Combined net profit: 6.21%.
Risk Disclaimer
Financial markets are volatile. All analysis and strategies mentioned are based on personal technical frameworks and are for journal purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk.
