Bitcoin Five-Wave Correction Structure: Key Level Decides Short-Term Direction
This week, BTC is in the final segment of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation of 'Endpoint 44' will determine short-term direction. If 'Endpoint 44' ends above $58,110, a technical rebound with decent momentum is likely, followed by a wide-range consolidation. If it falls below $58,110 but with bullish momentum divergence, a rebound is still possible but with uncertain strength. If below $58,110 without divergence, further breakdown is likely after a short consolidation. According to our proprietary quantitative model, the first two scenarios have higher probability.
On the 4-hour chart, the oversold rebound from the June 6 low of $59,100 ended at 'Endpoint 39' ($67,300). Since then, the market has entered a clear five-wave correction (endpoints 39 to 44), currently in wave (43-44). Key resistance levels: first zone $60,900–$62,300; second zone near $65,500; third zone $67,300–$69,500. Key support levels are dynamically adjusted.
Trading Strategy: 20% Medium-Term Short, 30% Short-Term for Spreads
For the medium term, the price has effectively broken below the 'Bull-Bear Channel', confirming a bearish market structure. Medium-term short positions should stay around 20%. For short-term, use 30% of capital with stop-losses, trading spreads based on support/resistance levels using the 30-min/60-min time frame. Three sets of contingency plans (A/B/C) are pre-defined to adapt to complex market developments.
HYPE Five-Wave Correction: Light Long Entries on Support Zone
HYPE started its correction from the June 16 high of $76.94 (Endpoint 51). On the 4-hour chart, it can be subdivided into five waves: 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, and 55-56. Price is currently in wave 55-56, with the location of 'Endpoint 56' being key. Our quantitative model indicates a higher probability for the first scenario (double bottom formation). Key resistance: near $65.5 and $71.5. Key support zones: above $58.8 and deeper at $52–$54.
Short-term strategy: accumulate on dips, avoid chasing highs. When HYPE adjusts to above $58.8 or the deeper $52–$54 support zone with stabilization signals, combined with bottom signals from two models, consider light long entries. Position size must be controlled under 30% with strict stop-loss discipline.
Last Week's Trade Validation: Two Short Trades Yielded 6.21%
Strictly following the trading plan and signals from the 'Spread Trading Model' and 'Momentum Quantitative Model', we executed two short trades last week. First trade: entered 15% short at $64,530, closed near $62,474, profit ~3.18%. Second trade: entered 15% short at $62,679, closed near $60,775, profit ~3.03%. Total trading profit ~6.21%. All trades used 1x leverage.
Risk disclaimer: Financial markets are volatile; all analysis and strategies require dynamic adjustments. This article is based on personal technical analysis and is for personal trading journal purposes only. It does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation.
