Bitcoin traded around $77,000 through the weekend, with price action staying relatively calm. The bigger question for traders was not the day-to-day fluctuation but the weekly chart: whether BTC can reclaim the moving averages that many still treat as the line between a damaged structure and a fuller bull-market setup.
Weekly averages remain the main battlefield for BTC
Rekt Capital said Bitcoin had faced the risk of closing the week below the 50-week EMA and has now moved under that level. In his framework, the 50-week and 21-week EMA usually act as major support during a bull market. If both turn into resistance, the market has not yet reclaimed a complete bullish structure. He said BTC needs to get back above $78,300 on a weekly basis to avoid repeating the weak setup seen in May.
Ash Crypto pointed to a similar pattern. He said Bitcoin was rejected twice before around the 50-week moving average, and both rejections were followed by notable pullbacks. If the market keeps losing that level, traders are first watching $75,500, then the 200-week moving average near $65,000.
That said, bullish positioning has not disappeared. Doctor Profit argued that moving-average resistance often takes several tests before it finally breaks. He remains constructive, but said confirmation would require a reclaim of the weekly 50 MA and a move back into the $82,500-$83,000 area. If the market first takes a deeper dip, he still sees $71,000 as strong support.
Across the near-term range, the report said many traders are treating $76,000-$76,100 as the key support band. If that breaks decisively, the market could revisit lower-liquidity areas around $74,000-$73,000, and possibly $71,000. Resistance sits around $78,500-$79,200. A sustained move above $82,000-$83,000 would be needed before opening a path toward $88,000.
Michaël van de Poppe said a pullback to the lower end of the range, or even to $74,500, would be a natural move and not a reason for panic. If Bitcoin retakes $78,000, he said the next few weeks could bring a test of $90,000.
Fed meeting could break the current balance
The report described the Federal Reserve as the event most likely to break the standoff. CrypNuevo expects an early-week move that sweeps upside liquidity before fading on the FOMC meeting. He said he would only raise his bullish conviction if BTC can hold above $82,000.
Daan Crypto Trades said there is still heavy liquidity stacked above $80,000. If Bitcoin reclaims the weekly highs, that could trigger a round of short covering.
According to the article, markets have already priced in more than an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. If the increase is delivered, risk assets could come under pressure together. If the Fed unexpectedly holds rates steady, the term premium in Treasuries could swing back against central bank credibility, and Bitcoin volatility could still expand.
Daniel YU, head of BIT Asset Management, said the hike itself has largely been priced in and the more important variable is what the Fed chair says about December. On the chart, he identified $76,000 as the key support. If that level fails, he said BTC could head toward $74,000 and $72,500.
Senate CLARITY Act vote is another market trigger
Regulation is the other major variable this week. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the CLARITY Act has adopted more than 120 Democratic requests and will face a key procedural vote on Tuesday.
The article said progress on the bill would support expectations for clearer U.S. crypto regulation. If the measure stalls, the market may once again trade policy uncertainty. It also noted that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act, with a vote scheduled for Sept. 15.
The report stressed that this vote would determine whether the bill advances to the next stage of consideration. It is not final passage. If the process moves forward smoothly, expectations for clearer rules around digital assets could strengthen for Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood and other compliance-focused trading platforms. If not, uncertainty stays in the market.
Crypto calendar: token unlocks, delistings and ETF flows
The article also listed a packed schedule for the week:
- The Fed decision is due, while the crypto sector watches the Senate motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act.
- ZRO, ARB and BR are set for major unlocks this week. ZRO alone accounts for about $26 million.
- The deadline for the Zcash community vote on the NU7 network upgrade is Sept. 14, with smooth issuance possibly replacing halving.
- The Standard Reserve is set to launch on Sept. 14.
- Spark will shut down the SparkLend lending protocol on Gnosis Chain on Sept. 14.
- Upbit and Bithumb will delist STORJ, TT and JASMY on Sept. 14.
- South Korea’s exchange market will begin after-hours trading on Sept. 14, expanding to all 2,651 listed stocks.
- SoftBank will repay the remaining $25.9 billion of a bridge loan tied to its OpenAI investment on Sept. 15.
- Solana has delayed the mainnet activation of Transaction V1 to Sept. 15.
- Sei will unlock about 55.56 million SEI, worth about $2.5 million.
- YZY will unlock about 29.17 million tokens, worth about $8.4 million.
- Starknet will unlock about 127 million STRK, worth about $3.6 million.
On ETF flows, the report said Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $463 million last week, ending a three-week run of net inflows. Ether spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $197 million, marking a fourth straight week of inflows. HYPE spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $26.4243 million, while XRP spot ETFs posted a net inflow of $18.9754 million and SOL spot ETFs added $10.3048 million.
The article also said Upbit’s 24-hour turnover ranking was led by CVC, LSK, XRP, MTL and STEEM. Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, the day’s biggest gainers were BTW up 35.9%, FIL up 26.8%, LIT up 10.4%, VET up 5.5% and CAKE up 5.1%.
U.S. futures weaken as AI and semiconductor names give back gains
Beyond crypto, the report turned to broader risk assets. During Monday’s Asia session, all three major U.S. stock index futures moved lower. Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1.7% at one point, S&P 500 futures lost about 0.7%, and Dow futures were down 0.2%.
The shift was notable because sentiment had improved on Friday’s technical rebound. By Monday, markets were back in defensive mode. The article linked that reversal to rising oil prices, Treasury yields nearing 5%, and a fresh narrative around slowing AI development.
BIT overnight data showed AI and semiconductors as the clearest outlet for selling pressure, with investors questioning whether capital spending can keep accelerating without limits. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF, SOXL, fell 10.20%. Marvell Technology dropped 5.32%, Sandisk lost 5.27%, Intel fell 4.79%, AMD dropped 4.33%, Micron slipped 4.29%, and Nvidia was down 2.06%. Circle rose 1.36% against the trend, with the report saying expectations for the Arc mainnet launch on Sept. 16 were offering support.
The article said investors should pay close attention before the open to Nvidia, AMD, Dell Technologies, Oracle and AI server-related names, as the debate over AI safety and a reassessment of capex expectations may continue to drive trading.
After Friday’s rebound, macro pressure and AI policy debate hit sentiment again
U.S. stocks had ended a four-session losing streak on Friday. The Dow gained 0.98%, the S&P 500 added 0.86%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.96%, helped by a temporary pullback in oil prices and a bounce in technology shares.
Over the weekend, however, geopolitical risk picked up quickly. The article said a key Saudi oil pipeline was still not back online and a Hormuz shipping meeting had been postponed. Brent and WTI crude both jumped nearly 3%, and European natural gas prices moved higher as well.
At the same time, U.S. core CPI for August came in above expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly approached 5%, and the market pushed the probability of a Wednesday rate hike above 86%. The report said Wall Street institutions broadly believe that if yields move above 5%, both tech valuations and financing costs will need to be repriced.
The AI trade also ran into a narrative shock over the weekend. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slower development of frontier AI models. Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly backed that stance. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella also said AI governance should not be controlled by a small number of entities and that MAI model behavior guidelines would be released. The market concern, according to the article, is that investors may need to rethink the growth slope for the AI capex chain, including Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Marvell, Dell and Super Micro Computer.
Wall Street is not uniformly bearish, though. Some institutions argue that frontier training may slow while existing models are already sufficient to drive a sharp rise in inference-compute demand. Goldman Sachs still expects S&P 500 earnings per share to reach $340 in 2026 and $385 in 2027, saying earnings growth may offset valuation pressure.
Among individual names, Dell Technologies rose 11.98% on Friday after Oracle identified the company as a core AI data-center supplier. The article also said Dell’s AI server revenue doubled year on year and its backlog reached $95 billion. HP gained 8.4% and Super Micro Computer added 7.28%.
Semiconductor stocks had also recovered broadly on Friday. ON Semiconductor rose 8.51%, Arm gained 4.17%, Marvell added 4.03%, AMD rose 2.49%, and Intel gained 2.61%. But much of that rebound faded in overnight trading.
Storage names were weaker. Seagate fell 3.73%, Sandisk lost 3.5%, Western Digital dropped 2.98%, and Micron slipped 0.22%. The article said Micron had announced record bonuses for more than 60,000 employees globally, with Taiwan staff receiving awards worth as much as 68 months of salary, while unions continued to push for a larger share of profits and move ahead with strike procedures.
Large-cap tech held up better on Friday. Apple rose 1.75%, Amazon gained 1.94%, Google added 1.53%, Microsoft rose 0.65%, Meta gained 0.57%, and Tesla rose 0.52%. The report also noted that Tesla plans to unveil the next-generation Roadster on Oct. 1, after Elon Musk had earlier said it would use SpaceX technology.
Crypto-linked equities were firmer on Friday, according to BIT data. Coinbase rose 1.73%, Circle gained 0.31%, and Robinhood slipped 0.67%. Miners outperformed: Canaan rose 9.04%, Hut 8 gained 8.83%, CleanSpark added 6.80%, Cipher Digital rose 5.71%, Marathon Digital gained 4.81%, Bitdeer rose 3.73%, Terawulf added 3.72%, and Riot gained 2.48%.
Asia markets come under pressure, led by South Korean chip names
Markets across Asia were under pressure on Monday as well. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.26% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.81%, with the decline tied mainly to weaker U.S. tech futures and softer global risk appetite.
In South Korea, pressure was concentrated in AI memory and chip leaders. SK Hynix fell 6.34% and Samsung Electronics lost 4.04%. The article said that if AI companies really do slow training activity, the market’s first reaction is to sell chips, memory and Korean tech stocks.
Japan’s decline was smaller, but the pressure was still there. Investors are waiting for the Bank of Japan decision on Sept. 18. If the BOJ raises rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% as expected, a faster rise in the yen could trigger carry-trade unwinds and weigh on exporters and richly valued technology shares.
Hong Kong equities were mixed. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.45%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index was nearly flat. Biotech names outperformed, with Innocare up nearly 11% and Akeso up nearly 6%. Semiconductor and AI names were weaker overall: the CSOP SK Hynix product dropped 13.67%, MINIMAX fell 6.52%, Montage Technology lost nearly 6%, and Zhipu fell more than 9%, extending its 10-day decline to more than 50%. The article said Zhipu’s $5 billion fundraising points to spending on compute and next-generation models, but the market is more concerned in the short term about dilution and repeated fundraising pressure.
Mainland A-shares traded lower throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component lost 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.10%. Lab-grown diamonds, innovative drugs, automakers and PCB names rose, while agriculture, defense, education and tourism retreated.
Dates and data points the market is watching next
Sept. 14
- Canada’s August CPI at 20:30. The report said the release could shift North American rate expectations. If inflation beats forecasts, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may stay firm, while gold and growth stocks could face pressure.
- A planned Hormuz meeting involving Iran and Gulf states has been postponed. The article said that delay means Middle East energy risk has not eased for now, leaving oil prices vulnerable to continued volatility.
Sept. 15
- China’s August industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment at 10:00. The article cited CICC forecasts of around 1% year-on-year retail-sales growth and about 4.6% industrial-output growth.
- The New York Fed manufacturing index for September at 20:30. A stronger reading could support elevated Treasury yields, while a weaker reading could weigh on cyclicals but relieve some rate pressure.
- The U.S. Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. The article stressed again that this is not final passage, but a vote on whether the bill can move deeper into the legislative process.
- Bessent is expected to testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets are watching comments on the U.S. fiscal deficit, debt financing and the international financial system, which could affect long-end Treasury yields.
Sept. 16
- U.S. API crude inventories at 04:30. With the Saudi pipeline outage in the background, the article said the market may react more sharply than usual. If inventories fall, oil could extend its advance.
- The launch of the “Doubao Phone” and Honor MagicOS 11. The focus is on on-device AI, AI agents and another round of competition for AI entry points among smartphone makers.
- Hong Kong’s first five-year plan and policy address. If the package includes measures tied to technology, finance, talent and industrial policy, local Hong Kong stocks, tech names and property expectations could all react.
The PANews and BIT U.S. stocks report placed Bitcoin’s technical standoff, the Fed, the Senate CLARITY vote and the AI-driven repricing in equities inside the same risk framework. For BTC, the levels remain clear: the market is still watching whether price can regain $78,300 on the weekly chart and then reclaim the $82,500-$83,000 zone.