Is Bitcoin building a floor above $53,600? Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, offers a detailed but cautious take.
Four-Year Cycle: Narrower Declines, Absent Top Signals
Thorn points out that Bitcoin's historic peaks and troughs have followed the four-year cycle, but drawdown depth keeps shrinking — from 85% and 84% in early cycles, to 77% in 2022, and a projected 51% in the 2026 cycle. Market structure is clearly maturing.
More importantly, the October 2025 peak diverged sharply from past patterns: only 2 of 11 traditional top indicators were triggered, and the closely-watched Pi Cycle Top failed to signal for the first time. The MVRV ratio reached just 2.29, significantly lower than prior cycle highs ranging from 2.93 to 5.91.
Thorn concludes that the current cycle has failed to generate classic top signals, suggesting peak and trough formations may diverge meaningfully from precedent.
Bottom Indicators: Only 4 of 13 Activated, Window Still Open
The report emphasizes that only 4 of 13 technical indicators traditionally associated with market bottoms have appeared this cycle. Many robust signals remain absent, making any confirmed bottom declaration premature.
Timing analysis also shows a deviation: historical bottoms typically occurred 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks, while the current downturn has been underway for about 8 months. Several analysts conclude the bottoming process is not yet complete.
Price Ranges: Realized Price of $53,600 as Key Anchor
Thorn projects that, with the current realized price at $53,600, the primary scenario places a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. In a more aggressive selloff, the floor could fall to the $30,000-$37,000 band. A mild correction may see Bitcoin stabilize in a tight corridor around $51,000 to $54,000.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant also observes that Bitcoin is within a valuation zone historically linked with major bear market lows. With BTC recently near $59,000 — only about 9% above the realized price of $53,600 — the proximity is significant. Previous cycles, including the FTX-driven selloff of November 2022, saw most cycle lows forming at or below the realized price. This suggests Bitcoin could again test sub-$53,600 levels, aligning with Galaxy's forecasted range of $40,000 to $46,000.
Demand Data: 652,000 BTC Drop in a Week, Annual Gauge Turns Negative
Demand-side data is concerning. CryptoQuant shows spot and speculative futures demand jointly fell by 652,000 BTC in a single week — the largest drop since January 2022. The firm's one-year demand gauge has moved into negative territory, indicating fewer buyers for BTC today compared to a year ago.