Bitcoin faced strong selling pressure at $77,800 mid-week, sliding to test $76,000 and briefly touching $75,000. The move mirrored a slump in the S&P 500 around the 7,200 level. The Iran conflict hit day 60, pushing crude oil near $118 per barrel, weighing on corporate margins and consumer spending. Doubts over tech firms' AI investment returns further dampened risk appetite, leaving Bitcoin bulls unable to sustain momentum above $78,000.
Funding Rate Stays Negative; Whale Positions Unmoved
Laevitas data shows the Bitcoin perpetual annualized funding rate turned negative again on Wednesday, remaining predominantly in negative territory over the past two weeks. In a healthy bull market, the rate typically sits between 6% and 12%, paid by longs. A negative rate signals elevated demand for short leverage, reflecting short-term bearish sentiment. A brief recovery to neutral on Tuesday was short-lived, reinforcing the "sell-the-rally" rhythm.
But funding alone doesn't tell the full story. CoinGlass data reveals the Binance top trader long-short ratio stood at 0.80 on Wednesday, improving slightly from 0.75 the day before. While still leaning bearish, the trend is narrowing, not widening. On OKX, top traders briefly flipped long several times this week. Overall, the whale long-short ratio did not show a systematic downtrend, indicating large players are not piling into shorts.
Fed Sees Four Dissenting Votes for First Time Since 1992
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in its April 29 meeting but revealed four dissenting votes supporting a 25-basis-point cut — the first time since October 1992 that the FOMC saw four opposing votes. The statement cited elevated inflation partly driven by rising energy prices. This split is double-edged: more dovish voices hint at economic strain while the majority hold firm on inflation concerns. For Bitcoin, the chain of "high oil → persistent inflation → prolonged tight policy" continues to cap risk appetite.
Strategy Surpasses BlackRock's IBIT in BTC Holdings
As retail and derivatives sentiment remains cautious, Strategy (MSTR) has been buying consistently, adding 56,235 BTC over the past four weeks, funded via its perpetual preferred security STRC. The firm now holds 818,334 BTC, surpassing BlackRock's IBIT spot ETF holdings. This institutional accumulation suggests the current caution is more about waiting for a catalyst than a genuine trend reversal.
Bitcoin's next move hinges on two questions: Will the Fed signal cuts under inflation pressure? Can tech earnings support the AI narrative? Until clarity emerges, funding rates may stay negative, but whale inactivity and Strategy's buying suggest short-term bearish signals need not define the medium-term direction.