Bitcoin has risen 2% this week, yet the backdrop behind the move looks fragile. Spot ETF inflows have cooled, stablecoin growth has stalled, and those two signals matter more when set against the flow of new coins entering the market each day from mining.
Under the current issuance schedule, the protocol produces a new block roughly every 10 minutes. Since the April 2024 halving, the block reward has been 3.125 BTC, which translates into about 450 BTC of fresh supply per day. Price can still push higher in the short run. The harder question is whether demand is strong enough to keep absorbing that supply at a meaningful pace.
Institutional absorption has dropped sharply
CoinDesk said last week that spot ETF inflows had lost momentum, pointing to renewed institutional indifference. Stablecoin growth has also flattened, a sign that new fiat money is not entering the system in size. Put together, the demand picture has weakened.
Bitfinex tracks that shift through its absorption-to-emissions ratio, or AER, a measure of institutional demand relative to miner issuance. The ratio has fallen to 1.3x from 5.3x in late February. In a report shared with CoinDesk, Bitfinex analysts said the current reading places the market in a “passive absorption/erosion” band, where demand still slightly exceeds miner supply, but only by a narrow margin.
That leaves little room for a powerful advance without a steady wave of fresh inflows. Bitfinex said a meaningful rally would need the kind of strong and consistent demand seen in late 2024 and the first half of 2025. At current levels, the market is absorbing supply, though not by enough to suggest a broad expansion in buying pressure.
Higher real yields are pulling capital elsewhere
The second headwind is the rise in market-based real interest rates, measured by inflation-adjusted U.S. Treasury yields. Since the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the yield on the 10-year TIPS has climbed by more than 30 basis points to 2.02%. Last week it touched 2.12%, the highest level since June 2025.
That yield reflects the real return available in bonds. As it rises, capital often shifts away from risk assets and from assets that do not generate cash flow or inherent yield. Bitcoin fits both descriptions: it is widely treated as a risk asset linked to an emerging technology, while supporters also compare it with gold, another non-yielding asset.
Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin’s setup is unlikely to improve unless Federal Reserve rates move lower and liquidity conditions become healthier, because higher real yields pull money away from non-yielding assets. The market is also pricing elevated real yields in the near term, suggesting this pressure may not fade quickly.
In a market note published Monday, Mott Capital Management founder and CEO Michael J. Kramer said the 10-year real yield is rising faster than the 5-year real yield, indicating that markets are pricing tighter financial conditions and higher real rates further out on the curve.