Glassnode says bitcoin is pinned between the median realized price of roughly $63,000 and short-term holders' cost basis of about $68,700, while spot trading volume drops to levels last seen in 2019. Core inflation cooled to 2.5% in July and equities hit fresh highs, but bitcoin barely moved — a sign that demand is missing. Selling pressure is easing: profitable supply sits near past bear-market bottoms, the seller exhaustion gauge has hit cyclical lows, and adjusted SOPR has been rejected at breakeven nine times. Buyers, however, remain absent, with tiny ETF inflows and coins still flowing to exchanges, even as derivatives leverage has piled up on the long side, open interest runs high relative to volume, and order books thin. Glassnode is watching $68,700 to the upside and roughly $58,500 to the downside. A decisive reclaim of the former, accompanied by a pickup in volume and ETF inflows, would confirm improvement; losing the latter could accelerate declines given thin bids and crowded longs. The firm remains cautious, framing this as late-stage bear market compression with no real demand signal yet.
Bitcoin is squeezing between two key on-chain cost levels, and spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest since 2019, according to Glassnode.
The analytics firm said the median realized price of roughly $63,000 forms the lower bound, while the short-term holder cost basis of about $68,700 caps the upper side. In its view, the market is in an extremely quiet compression phase.
Macro conditions offered little help. Core inflation cooled to 2.5% in July and equities set fresh records, yet bitcoin barely reacted — it even weakened. Glassnode read that as a clear absence of demand.
Selling pressure, meanwhile, is fading. Profitable supply has moved close to the lows typical of past bear-market bottoms, the seller exhaustion indicator has touched cyclical lows, and adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.
Buyers remain absent. ETF inflows are minimal, and coins are still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives, however, tell a different story: leverage has already built up heavily on the long side, open interest is high relative to volume, and order book depth is thinning.
Glassnode flagged $68,700 to the upside and roughly $58,500 to the downside as the key levels to watch. A decisive break above the former, backed by rising volume and ETF inflows, would confirm improvement. Losing the latter, with thin bids and crowded longs, could accelerate the decline.
The firm stays cautious overall, describing the current phase as late-stage bear market compression. No genuine demand signal has appeared yet.
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