Bitcoin is trading between its median realized price (about $63,000) and the short-term holder cost basis (near $68,700), with spot volume hitting its lowest since 2019. Even as core inflation eased to 2.5% in July and stocks reached fresh records, the largest cryptocurrency barely reacted and even slipped — a clear sign, Glassnode says, that demand is missing.
Sell-side pressure is fading. Profitable supply is close to the zones seen at past bear market bottoms, a seller exhaustion gauge has hit cycle lows, and adjusted SOPR has been rejected at breakeven nine times. Buyers, however, remain absent: ETF inflows are tiny and coins are still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives already hold large long positioning, open interest is high relative to volume, and bid depth is thinning.
Glassnode is watching $68,700 to the upside and roughly $58,500 below. A sustained break above the former, confirmed by rising volume and ETF inflows, would suggest improvement; losing the latter risks an accelerated drop with thin bids and crowded longs.
The firm stays cautious, calling the situation a late-stage bear compression. No real demand signal has emerged.
Glassnode says Bitcoin remains wedged between the median realized price of about $63,000 and the short-term holder cost basis near $68,700, with spot volumes at their lowest since 2019. The firm describes the market as being in an extremely quiet compression phase.
No Reaction to Cooler Inflation or Record Highs
Core inflation eased to 2.5% in July and stocks climbed to fresh records. Bitcoin, however, showed almost no response and even drifted weaker. Glassnode reads this as a clear absence of demand.
Seller Exhaustion, But Buyers Missing
Sell pressure is fading. Profitable supply is approaching the zones typical of past bear market bottoms, a seller-exhaustion indicator has hit cyclical lows, and adjusted SOPR has now been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.
The buy side is another story. ETF inflows are barely noticeable, and coins continue to flow into exchanges. Derivatives positioning, by contrast, has already gone heavily long: open interest looks high relative to volume, and order book depth is thinning out.
Levels to Watch: $68,700 Up, $58,500 Down
Glassnode points to $68,700 as the key resistance and roughly $58,500 as the level to watch below. A convincing reclaim of the former, accompanied by a pickup in volume and ETF inflows, would be needed to confirm improvement. Losing the latter, with thin bids and crowded longs in place, could speed up the decline.
The firm remains cautious overall, seeing this as a late-stage bear market compression. The real demand signal, it says, has yet to appear.
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