The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, or BTC/XAU, has fallen below a long-term support line that had held for more than 12 years. In the source report, that break is described as a sign that Bitcoin, when priced in gold, has entered a “deep bear market.” Bitcoin is trading around $89,725, while gold has climbed to $4,950 per ounce, widening the contrast between the two assets.
Bitcoin and gold are moving in opposite directions
According to the report, Bitcoin started 2026 near $97,000, dropped below $87,500 at one stage, and remains well below its October 2025 record high of $126,210. That leaves it down by roughly 30% from the peak. Gold, by contrast, has kept advancing as geopolitical tensions and worsening fiscal deficits stay in focus.
HSBC was cited as expecting gold to break above $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. That call has added fresh weight to the long-running comparison between Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative and gold’s standing as a traditional safe-haven asset.
Past chart patterns point to a longer base-building phase
The article argues that when BTC/XAU breaks below long-term support, the ratio has historically needed time to build a base before any sustained recovery. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone was quoted with a bearish view, saying 2025 may have marked the top of the crypto cycle and that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in 2026, with room for a deeper decline.
Bitwise CEO also said the four-year halving cycle is dead. In that reading, crypto has been in an “invisible bear market” since February 2025, but continued buying by corporate whales has masked some of the pressure from retail selling. The report specifically pointed to MicroStrategy, which it said holds more than 640,000 BTC.
Market forecasts for 2026 are sharply split
On the bearish side, McGlone’s extreme scenario puts Bitcoin at $10,000. Galaxy Digital said options pricing suggests the odds of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 by the end of 2026 are similar to the odds of it rising to $250,000. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates was also cited as saying Bitcoin has structural flaws and is less reliable than gold.
On the bullish side, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said 2026 could break the four-year cycle and bring a new all-time high. Standard Chartered projected a floor of $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2026, while Robert Kiyosaki gave a target of $250,000.
Portfolio allocation is back at the center of the discussion
With Bitcoin showing a major technical breakdown against gold, the report cited Charles Schwab’s advice for bear markets: avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, keep long-term discipline, and stay diversified across asset classes. For investors still focused on Bitcoin’s long-term case, the current pullback is being framed by some as a possible staged entry zone, though the short-term strength of gold is drawing more attention.