Bitcoin crossed $75,000 and Gold approached $4,800 — both rising, but analyst Michaël van de Poppe says the number worth watching is the ratio between them. That ratio is telling a story told only four times in Bitcoin's history.
BTC/Gold Ratio Hits Historic Low
The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio — measuring how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin buys — peaked at 36 in September 2025 and crashed to 12 by February 2026, a 66% drop in five months. Van de Poppe calls it the heaviest Bitcoin correction against Gold ever, a two-standard deviation outlier. Similar extremes appeared only at four bear market bottoms: the 2015 Mt. Gox aftermath, the March 2020 COVID crash, the November 2022 FTX collapse, and now.
History: 370% Average Return in 12 Months
Each prior signal triggered consistent outperformance. After the 2022 bottom, Bitcoin returned 44% in three months and 131% in twelve. After the 2020 COVID crash, it returned 90% in three months and 1,100% in twelve. Averaged across all four events: 45% after three months, 120% after six months, 370% after twelve. Van de Poppe said: "This is the general moment every cycle you'd want to get allocated into an asset. Almost everyone is busy being distracted — that's fine, but that's not how investing works."
Short-Term Target $87,500-$90,000, Q4 2026 at $115K-$125K
Bitcoin currently trades at $75,490, up 10.64% on the week. Van de Poppe sets a three-month target of $87,500-$90,000, and a Q3/Q4 2026 range of $115,000-$125,000. He sees 2027 as a full bull market year. Gold sits at $4,799, up 49% over the past year. He argues Bitcoin has started to outperform Gold since the Iran war began, reinforcing the longer-term thesis.