Bitcoin showed only a weak relationship with rising U.S. government bond yields over the past 90 days, according to a CoinDesk analysis built on TradingView data. The report put Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at -0.17, a reading that suggests yield increases had little direct effect on BTC prices during the period.
Gold, by comparison, showed a stronger negative link to the same benchmark. Its 90-day correlation with the 10-year yield was -0.41.
The same dataset showed Bitcoin and gold moving closer together in price behavior. Their 90-day correlation reached 0.59, the highest level since 2020, when pandemic-era liquidity conditions were reshaping markets.
Key correlation readings
- BTC vs. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: -0.17
- Gold vs. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: -0.41
- BTC vs. gold price: 0.59
CoinDesk said the figures point to two developments at once. First, Bitcoin and gold are being grouped more closely under a shared hard-asset narrative. Second, even if the two assets rise and fall together more often, they are not responding to exactly the same forces.
Why the gap with gold matters
The 10-year Treasury yield is widely treated as a benchmark rate for overall credit conditions in the economy. In traditional finance, higher yields tend to weigh on non-yielding assets because investors can earn more from government bonds, reducing the relative appeal of holding assets such as gold or Bitcoin.
In this set of data, though, Bitcoin appeared far less responsive to that mechanism than gold.
CoinDesk’s analysis said gold’s value proposition is more directly tied to inflation protection and safe-haven demand. Rate hikes are meant to curb inflation, so stronger expectations for tighter monetary policy can put pressure on gold. That is consistent with the metal’s -0.41 correlation with the 10-year yield.
Bitcoin, in the report’s framing, is tied more closely to digital scarcity. CoinDesk pointed to BTC’s 21 million supply cap and its separation from fiat currency systems, arguing that holders may be more focused on long-term protection against currency debasement than on short-term rate moves.
The report also outlined another possible explanation. If markets are simultaneously worried about worsening fiscal conditions and fiat currency depreciation, one force may push yields higher while the other supports Bitcoin. In that case, the two effects can offset each other, leaving BTC with a correlation close to zero against yields.
CoinDesk also said Bitcoin price formation may be increasingly influenced by institutional capital and on-chain treasury companies. According to that view, these holders operate on time horizons that are longer than the cycle of short-term rate adjustments, which may limit the effect of yield volatility on their positioning.
What the data may mean for allocation
For investors, CoinDesk said the figures matter as a test of diversification. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is relatively high at 0.59, but its correlation with interest rates remains lower than gold’s, at -0.17 versus -0.41.
Within that framework, Bitcoin may offer some of the same anti-debasement characteristics as gold while carrying less sensitivity to rising yields. The report did not say BTC is immune, however. Sharp moves in Treasury yields could still affect Bitcoin indirectly through shifts in risk-on and risk-off sentiment.
What to watch next
CoinDesk pointed to U.S. fiscal policy as a key variable. If the federal deficit keeps widening and government debt continues to grow, confidence in fiat currencies could weaken further. In that scenario, both gold and Bitcoin could benefit, while Bitcoin may face less direct pressure from higher yields.
Another question is whether the 0.59 correlation between Bitcoin and gold will keep rising. If that figure moves closer to 1.0, Bitcoin’s case as an independent hedge could weaken. At the current level, CoinDesk said the two assets still retain distinct pricing logic.