Bitcoin printed a golden cross earlier this week, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, a setup that is usually treated as a bullish signal. This time, though, the market did not follow the script. According to the analysis cited by BlockBeats, BTC had already climbed from $62,000 to $82,000 before the crossover formed. After the signal appeared, the price instead slipped from around $80,000 to near $77,000.
The report argues that this has happened repeatedly in past cycles. In several cases, Bitcoin posted most of its gains before the golden cross appeared, then pulled back shortly afterward, making the signal look more lagging than predictive. It cited examples from 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025: BTC rose from $35,000 to about $52,000 before a September 2021 crossover and later fell to around $40,000; from $16,000 to $23,000 before a February 2023 crossover and then retreated to roughly $20,000 in March; from $54,000 to $70,000 before an October 2024 crossover and then eased to about $67,000 before November; and from around $76,000 in April 2025 to about $110,000 in May before dropping back to around $100,000 in June after the signal formed.
Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week, with the 50-day moving average moving above the 200-day moving average, a pattern that is often read as a bullish setup. According to BlockBeats on Sept. 11, the signal failed again to produce follow-through.
The analysis said Bitcoin had already rallied from $62,000 to $82,000 before the crossover appeared. After the golden cross formed, the price moved the other way, falling from around $80,000 to near $77,000.
Most of the gains often come before the crossover
The report said Bitcoin has often delivered the bulk of its upside before a golden cross is printed. A pullback tends to come soon after, which makes the signal look more like a lagging indicator. The same pattern has shown up several times before.
- In July 2021, Bitcoin rose from $35,000 to about $52,000 by September before a golden cross formed, then dropped to around $40,000.
- At the start of 2023, Bitcoin climbed from $16,000 to $23,000 and formed a crossover in February, then fell back to around $20,000 in March.
- In October 2024, Bitcoin advanced from $54,000 to $70,000 before the crossover and then slipped to about $67,000 before November.
- In April 2025, Bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 and rose to about $110,000 in May. After the golden cross formed, it pulled back to around $100,000 in June.
The analyst said that while the golden cross is still widely viewed as a longer-term bullish signal, a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s gains may already be behind it by the time the signal appears.
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