Bitcoin (BTC) printed a golden cross on Sept. 8, with the 50-day moving average moving above the 200-day moving average, a signal traders usually read as bullish. Price did not follow. BTC instead slipped below $79,000, showing that macro headwinds were still setting the tone for the short-term market.
CoinDesk data showed Bitcoin fell below roughly $78,800 on Tuesday, down more than 1% on the day. Other market quotes briefly dropped to around $78,300. Over the past two weeks, BTC has tested the $80,000 threshold several times but has not been able to hold above it.
Golden cross appears, but history shows it is not a guaranteed rally signal
The latest technical readings put Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average at about $69,964, slightly above the 200-day average at about $69,868. That suggests recent price momentum has started to overtake the longer-term trend.
Even so, historical data shows the pattern is not a sure-fire trigger for gains. CoinDesk said Bitcoin has recorded 12 such crosses since 2012. In the cases with enough data to measure performance, the average gain over the following three months was about 24.9%. Only three instances, however, managed to hold for a full year without being reversed by a death cross, highlighting the lagging nature of the indicator.
Treasury yields stay elevated as markets reprice Fed risk
The report said macro conditions are having more influence than technicals right now. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.8%. After August nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, market bets on a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose to about 60%.
Higher yields make risk-free assets more attractive and put added valuation pressure on more volatile assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.
Oil nears $100 a barrel and inflation concerns return
Energy prices have also moved higher as tensions in the Middle East pushed the market again. Reuters reported that Brent crude rose about 1.7% on Tuesday to around $98.66 a barrel, close to the $100 mark.
That increase has revived inflation worries and added to concern that upcoming U.S. producer price index and consumer price index readings could strengthen the case for the Fed to keep a hawkish stance.
Yen strength raises concern over carry trade unwinds
Another source of risk is Japan. USD/JPY at one point fell to around 152.89, with the yen reaching its strongest level in nearly seven months after rebounding sharply from around 160 against the dollar a week earlier. Markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Bank of Japan could raise rates again, while the yen’s rapid appreciation has increased concern over forced unwinds in global yen carry trades.
Reuters said cross-border yen lending had reached about 360 trillion yen as of March, a sign that the scale of related positions is large enough to matter for broader markets.
Technical strength is colliding with weaker macro conditions
Bitcoin is now showing a rare split between improving technicals and deteriorating macro conditions. The golden cross points to a better medium-term trend, but yields, oil prices and yen appreciation are all pushing up the global cost of capital while increasing deleveraging risk.
Short-term focus is now on the $77,000 to $79,000 area. If upcoming U.S. inflation data runs hot and expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to rise, support near $77,000 could come under pressure again. If yields ease and BTC regains a stable footing above $80,000, the latest golden cross may gradually shift from a lagging indicator to a more convincing confirmation of a bullish trend.