A crypto analyst has projected that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach its cycle peak between October 19 and November 20, 2025, after which bears typically take control of the market. Using the Bitcoin Cycle Peak Countdown model, analyst Cryptobirb asserted in an Aug. 14 post on X that BTC's bull market, which usually lasts 1,060 to 1,100 days, is now at day 997 since the cycle low observed on Nov. 21, 2022.
Halving Events and Bull Market Length
Cryptobirb explained that BTC halving events often provide clues about when the top cryptocurrency is likely to peak. While Bitcoin peaked some 366 days after the first halving, subsequent halvings showed peaks occurring more than 500 days later. It has now been more than 550 days since the last halving on April 19, 2024, and according to the analyst, BTC is less than 70 days away from reaching its latest cycle peak.
The analyst also pointed to the duration of Bitcoin's last four bull markets to support his model. While the 2010-2011 bull run lasted just under a calendar year, the 2011-2013 bull more than doubled to 746 days. Since then, each subsequent bull market has surpassed 1,000 days, and the current one is tracking toward 1,060-1,100 days.
Current Cycle Position and Best Months
“Where are we now? Cycle low: Nov. 21, 2022 (997 days ago). Days since last halving: 482, peak odds highest in next 3 months, with the sweet spot between Oct. 15 & Nov. 15, 2025,” Cryptobirb concluded. He emphasized that October and November are Bitcoin's “best months” because they deliver the top average gains and the most all-time-highs.
Although BTC has set milestone after milestone since the start of the year, the model suggests the real top is yet to come. The analyst warned that bear markets also follow a pattern, each typically lasting 370 to 410 days with an average loss of -66%, and expects the bear phase to take hold in 2026.
How to Prepare
To prepare for the approaching peak, Cryptobirp urged followers to plan their exit, cut leverage, take profits, and get ready for the altcoin season that typically starts after the Bitcoin top. Historically, capital rotation from Bitcoin into smaller caps has driven significant gains in the post-peak period.