Bitcoin’s halving story is still central in 2026, but the market is far less aligned on what comes next. BTC is trading around $90,000 to $93,000, while post-halving supply cuts, spot ETF demand, miner selling, and regulatory expectations are all pushing on price at the same time.
Daily new supply has fallen to 450 BTC
The halving reduces miner rewards every four years. Before April 2024, miners received 6.25 BTC per block. After the 2024 halving, that reward dropped to 3.125 BTC. Daily new issuance also fell from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
That mechanism still matters because Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins. In past cycles, lower issuance strengthened scarcity and tended to support prices over longer periods, even if the short-term reaction was uneven.
ETF inflows are strong, but price is still stuck below resistance
This cycle is not following the old script cleanly. On the 6th, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $243 million in flows, led by Fidelity and Grayscale, while BlackRock’s IBIT also posted inflows. At the same time, the article notes that Bitcoin reached a $126,000 all-time high in 2025, and some institutional investors may now be taking profits.
Price action remains fragile. BTC is still struggling below resistance near $91,500, which keeps traders cautious. Analysts cited in the piece say a loss of support in the $88,000 to $90,000 range could open the door to a deeper correction. One extreme bearish model even points to $40,000 if the classic four-year cycle remains intact and the $90,000 area keeps acting as a hard ceiling.
Miner pressure has added fresh supply to the market
Miners are dealing with a harsher operating setup after the halving. Lower block rewards and higher energy costs have squeezed margins, forcing some operators to sell BTC to cover expenses. The report says miners recently sold close to $50 million worth of coins, while hashrate has also dipped.
That has weighed on short-term sentiment, but it has not stopped accumulation by larger holders. On-chain data cited in the article shows large wallets bought more than 3,000 BTC near the $90,000 level. Historically, buying by whales around support zones has been read as a sign of long-term conviction rather than short-term trading.
ETF absorption is changing the shape of the cycle
The article argues that spot ETFs are now absorbing far more Bitcoin than miners produce in a year. That shift has disrupted the old four-year pattern and helps explain why Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the 2024 halving, something not seen in earlier cycles.
Regulation is another major variable. The piece says expected crypto market structure laws in early 2026 could allow banks to offer custody and payment services. Clearer rules have historically opened the way for larger institutional capital flows.
Historically, Bitcoin has often peaked 12 to 18 months after a halving, followed by a consolidation or bear phase lasting 1 to 2 years. In this cycle, a large part of the move happened earlier because of ETF inflows. The timeline referenced in the article points to 2026 to 2027 as a likely period of consolidation and accumulation, with the next halving expected in March to April 2028. After that, another supply reduction could restart longer-term bullish momentum.
Price expectations remain wide. Tim Draper is sticking with a $250,000 target for 2026. BlackRock’s Larry Frank says $300,000 is possible. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said in early January that BTC could reach $200,000 to $250,000 in 2026. Other analyst targets range from $75,000 to above $225,000, showing how divided the market still is on whether the halving cycle is breaking down or simply changing form.