Bitcoin Magazine said Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon signal recovered on Aug. 26 and has remained intact for 61 straight days, a move the program said points to easing miner stress and the possibility that a market bottom is already in place.
In the segment, Sean Hagan broke down how the signal has behaved historically. Of the seven recoveries counted in the review, Bitcoin was higher one year later in six of them, which the program described as roughly a 72% edge in directional accuracy. At the same time, the discussion did not present the indicator as foolproof. It said there were 15 misses out of 231 observations, with April 2021 highlighted as a notable example because Bitcoin went on to fall 17%. A January signal from this year is also still 12% underwater.
Capitulation days have reached a new record
The program explained the Hash Ribbon by counting miner capitulation days going back to 2011. It said this cycle has set a new record, with 223 of 365 days spent in capitulation, compared with 141 days in 2012.
Why this cycle looks different
According to the segment, this cycle differs from earlier ones because some miners did not leave only under financial pressure. It said miners exited for $100 billion in AI contracts, making the current setup look less like 2018 or 2022 and more like the period following China’s 2021 mining ban.
Timing and hash rate data
The timing, the program argued, still fits the historical pattern. Miner capitulation peaked 56 days after the June 30 low. It also said the Hash Ribbon recovery has now lasted 61 consecutive days, while the 30-day hash rate stands at roughly 1.1 ZH, up 13% from the July low. On that basis, the segment said the worst of miner stress is likely behind the market.
Price confirmation and the reliability question
The discussion also pointed to price-based confirmation. It said MVRV is above its average and Bitcoin is trading above the 50-week level.
Still, the program raised a direct challenge to the signal’s reliability. Grace Remington asked whether the indicator remains dependable if miners left voluntarily. The historical count presented in the segment remained the same: in six of the seven recoveries tracked, Bitcoin was higher one year later.
The program also asked whether hash rate that shifted toward AI could eventually return to Bitcoin as infrastructure build-outs run into bottlenecks. It described Hash Ribbon as a backward-looking chart, while saying its directional track record is above 70%.
Disclaimer and byline
The program said the views and opinions expressed by participants are their own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or affiliated entities. It added that the content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be treated as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, nor as a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Viewers were advised to consult their own advisers before making financial or business decisions.
The post first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.
