Bitcoin is on course to post a rare third consecutive quarterly loss, with Q2 2026 down 11.96% so far. If that decline holds through the end of the quarter, it would extend weakness that began in Q4 2025 and continued through Q1 2026. The slide started after Bitcoin climbed to nearly $126,000 in October 2025, then turned lower following the October 10 liquidation event that drained more than $19 billion from the market.
Selling pressure has remained heavy. Since the downturn began in Q4 2025, the market has lost roughly $1.32 trillion in value, according to the source material. That figure is larger than Bitcoin’s own market capitalization of about $1.19 trillion at the time referenced in the report. In Q1 2026, Bitcoin fell 22.2%, while sentiment was weighed down by the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East and the escalating tariff war between the United States and China.
Spot demand exists, but the net buying remains thin
Buyers have not fully stepped away from the spot market. Over the latest 24-hour period cited in the analysis, purchases reached about $1.87 billion, while sales totaled roughly $1.77 billion. That leaves buyers slightly ahead, though not by much. On a broader view, Bitcoin’s 15-day netflow stands near $631 million and the 30-day netflow near $1.76 billion, both tilted toward accumulation. Even so, the report says those flows are still too small to shift the wider chart structure.
This kind of multi-quarter decline has happened before. The article points to 2022 as the most recent comparable period, with earlier stretches seen in 2019 to 2020 and 2014 to 2015. The current drawdown is unusual, but it does have historical precedent in Bitcoin’s trading history.
June ETF redemptions mark the biggest monthly outflow since launch
A more important signal for any rebound may be coming from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Those products have tracked the broader capital retreat, and Bitcoin is now heading toward the largest ETF outflow period since the funds were introduced. In June 2026 alone, about $4.06 billion was withdrawn. That exceeds the previous record set in November 2025. Outflows of that size suggest that institutional and ETF-linked demand has not returned in force, leaving Bitcoin stuck in a weaker range for now.
Bollinger Bands place Bitcoin in the undervalued zone
On valuation signals, the report says Bitcoin has moved down to the lower Bollinger Band, placing it in the chart’s undervalued area. That setup can indicate seller exhaustion and open the way for an upward move. The analysis highlights two price levels: a nearer-term target of $69,933 and an upper target of about $82,802. The chart may be showing undervaluation, but the flow data in spot markets and ETFs still points to a market where recovering demand remains limited.