Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end February with a nearly 20% loss, marking its fifth straight monthly decline — the longest such streak since the 2018 bear market. Trading around $64,168 at press time, BTC is down more than 25% year-to-date; this would be the first time both January and February have closed in the red.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is nearing a fifth consecutive weekly drop, matching a streak last seen between March and May 2022. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has slid to 12.288 ounces, a 70% collapse over the past 14 months.
Structural Repricing, Not Just Selling
Mati Greenspan, chief market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk that tariffs, ETF flows and macro jitters explain timing but not the underlying move. “What we’re witnessing is not simply weakness — it��s repricing within a structural regime shift,” he said. Markets are re-evaluating how they price risk assets in an era of elevated uncertainty, Greenspan argued.
Geopolitical tensions have boosted the U.S. dollar and crude oil, tightening financial conditions and weighing on Bitcoin. Meanwhile, U.S. equities have held up relatively well, breaking the traditional risk-on correlation.
$3.8B ETF Outflows, Lack of Clear Narrative
Jonathan Landin, chief market analyst at PrimeXBT, noted in an email that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows totaling $3.8 billion over the past five weeks. Tariff tensions persist, and the Federal Reserve has not signaled rate cuts, adding macro pressure.
“Gold is up about 48% since September, while Bitcoin is down roughly 41% over the same period,” Landin said. “Investors still treat Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not digital gold.” He highlighted the extreme volatility in BTC-Nasdaq correlation: the 20-day coefficient swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. “That’s not decorrelation — it’s instability. When one asset lags in a risk-on environment, that’s typically a sign of weakness.”
Decorrelation Could Be Structurally Bullish
Greenspan argued that Bitcoin’s core narrative — a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems — has not changed since 2009. “When correlations break down during regime shifts, it’s usually not random. If equities are still seen as cyclical growth exposure while Bitcoin starts trading like a sovereign hedge, the divergence is a structurally bullish signal,” he said.