Bitcoin short-term holders are still facing heavy unrealized losses. Analyst Darkfost said BTC is trading in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, well below the short-term holder cost basis of about $85,900. That gap suggests that buyers who entered the market in recent months are still underwater.
On-chain data points to continued stress among investors who bought Bitcoin within the last six months. Darkfost said the short-term holder MVRV ratio is holding near 0.77. In late February, the metric fell close to 0.7, implying average losses of nearly 30%. When MVRV stays below neutral territory for an extended period, it usually reflects weak holder positioning and a more fragile market structure.
Downtrend From September 2025 Remains Intact
Price action also continues to favor the bears. According to the source material, Bitcoin has been in a multi-month downtrend since September 2025, falling from above $120,000 to around $67,000. The chart has produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, keeping the bearish structure in place.
Earlier, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross. Since then, BTC has remained below the 200-day average. The rebound from the $62,000 to $64,000 area did occur, but the recovery has stayed limited and uneven.
$67,000 Support and $72,000 Resistance Define the Range
For now, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $72,000. Minor support sits near $67,000, while a more important support zone remains at $62,000 to $64,000. On the upside, resistance is clustered between $70,000 and $72,000. A stronger barrier stands near $78,000 to $80,000, close to the 200-day moving average.
Darkfost said a break below $67,000 would make a retest of lower support more likely. If BTC reclaims $72,000, short-term momentum could improve. Even so, the broader setup described in the report remains weak.