Bitcoin climbed back above and held $61,000 after June U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $222 million to $224 million in net inflows, snapping a 10-day run of outflows and helping risk sentiment recover.
According to the source material, the U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, missing the consensus estimate of 114,000. That softer print reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with the probability of another rate hike by year-end falling from 85% to 77%. The shift pushed money back into risk assets after Bitcoin had briefly dropped below $58,000 earlier in the week, touching around $57,700.
Ethereum rebounds and ETF flows turn positive
Ethereum also recovered, reclaiming the $1,700 level. The report said ETH had rebounded nearly 10% from its weekly low, easing concerns that it could break below $1,500 support.
ETF flow data drew particular attention. The article said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $2.4 billion in redemptions over June, the heaviest selling wave since the products launched in January 2024. After the payroll report, that trend reversed on Thursday, with fresh inflows ending the 10-session outflow streak and pointing to renewed dip-buying from longer-term allocators.
Options markets calm as short-term volatility drops
Derivatives data also showed less stress. One-week at-the-money implied volatility fell from above 40 to the 30s, while the options term structure moved back into contango, a shape generally seen as more favorable for sellers. Protective put options were still trading at a premium, but the skew was no longer as extreme as it had been in the previous few sessions.
That does not mean the market has fully shaken off its defensive posture. Still, spot prices, ETF flows, and options pricing all improved at the same time, which helps explain the strength of the rebound.
Some institutions warn the report may still carry hawkish signals
The source also noted that some firms, including QCP Capital, were not ready to turn outright bullish. Their view was that the payroll report contained more noise than signal. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but the decline was attributed mainly to lower labor-force participation rather than stronger hiring demand.
Another concern came from wages and consumption. The report said wage growth was still accelerating and end-demand remained firm, which could keep inflation pressure alive even as headline job creation slows. It also mentioned that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may prefer to maintain a hawkish tone early in his term to build anti-inflation credibility.
With U.S. markets affected by the Independence Day holiday, liquidity is expected to thin out, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to two-way swings in the near term. The next major macro dates cited in the source are the July 14 CPI release and the July 15 PPI report, both of which are likely to shape expectations for Fed policy in the second half of the year.