Bitcoin is still trading above its 200-week simple moving average near $59,560, putting one of the market’s most closely watched long-term support levels back in focus. Analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin has historically spent very little time below this line, and in earlier bear-market periods it often acted as a durable floor.
He said many investors treat this area as a zone for gradual accumulation rather than an attempt to time the exact bottom. The 200-week average, in his view, should be read alongside liquidity conditions, macro trends, regulatory developments, and on-chain data.
The 200-week average is back at center stage
Bitcoin holding above that level has drawn comparisons with accumulation phases seen in 2020 and 2022, when similar tests of the long-term average were followed by rebounds. This cycle looks different, though. Bitcoin is still in a corrective phase after setting record highs, and analysts argue that a cluster of bullish signals matters more than any single chart level.
Visible demand has been negative for 208 days
While long-term support remains intact for now, on-chain figures show little sign of a meaningful recovery in buying appetite. Citing CryptoQuant data, Martinez said Bitcoin visible demand has stayed negative for 208 straight days, recently reaching about minus 273,000 BTC.
This metric compares newly mined Bitcoin entering circulation with the movement of older coins already in the market. A persistent negative reading suggests new supply is outweighing fresh demand, with older holdings coming to market faster than buyers can absorb them. Asked who is selling, Martinez replied, “Everyone is selling.” The remark was casual, but the underlying data points to broad distribution rather than concentrated selling from one group.
Debate over Strategy’s leveraged approach returns
Attention has also shifted to MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, after a steep drop in its share price. A satirical chart highlighting the decline has renewed criticism of the company’s use of debt and preferred-share issuance to finance Bitcoin purchases.
The chart shows MSTR down roughly 84.9% from its all-time high. It is not an official financial analysis, but it has fed arguments against leveraged Bitcoin accumulation. Speaking to CNBC, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said debt-funded Bitcoin buying can raise downside risk during corrections and can amplify volatility across the broader crypto market. At the same time, he said he remains optimistic on Bitcoin over the long run and described BTC as “digital gold.”
Technical signals still lean cautious
On the technical side, sellers continue to hold an edge. TradingView’s summary reads as neutral, yet the underlying breakdown shows 14 sell ratings, 8 neutral, and 4 buy. The RSI stands at 33, close to oversold territory, but it has not confirmed a clear reversal.
Some short-term indicators suggest sellers may be losing momentum. Even so, the MACD remains deep in negative territory at about minus 2,310. Bitcoin is also trading below all major moving averages, including the 10-day EMA at $61,468, 20-day EMA at $63,107, 50-day EMA at $67,219, and 200-day EMA at $76,688. For now, the market is watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim resistance in the low $60,000 range and avoid a sustained move below the 200-week average.