Bitcoin traded just under $70,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a two-week ceasefire with Iran, a move that lifted crypto and other risk assets while sending oil sharply lower. Oil fell by more than 17% in a single day, and equities moved higher as traders adjusted to the idea that tensions could ease. Even so, WTI crude quickly climbed back above $100.
Oil pricing points to a temporary supply shock
Timmer said markets appear to be pricing in a path toward de-escalation in the Iran-linked conflict. Spot oil pushed above $100 per barrel, but long-dated futures remained well below that level, suggesting investors see the disruption as temporary rather than structural.
During the worst phase of the turmoil earlier this year, the S&P 500 fell about 9%. It later recovered most of that drop, leaving losses at roughly 1%. Credit spreads widened only modestly, and broad financial stress did not emerge. Timmer also noted an unusual pattern in traditional safe-haven assets: gold and U.S. Treasuries have recently been moving together. He linked that to global capital flows, with some countries possibly selling both gold and Treasuries to raise liquidity during uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
$65,000 seen as a major level for Bitcoin
In Timmer’s view, Bitcoin has started to behave more like gold, while gold at times has shown the kind of volatility usually associated with crypto. After Bitcoin climbed to $126,000 last October, capital rotated quickly out of crypto and into gold, contributing to a steep decline. Once Bitcoin had fallen 50% to 60% from its peak, selling pressure dropped sharply.
He identified $65,000 as a critical technical support level for Bitcoin. A strong catalyst may still be needed for the market’s next major move. Gold, by contrast, looks more exposed to a pullback after its recent surge.
Middle East risks and Treasury yields remain in focus
Timmer argued that strong corporate earnings have helped equities avoid deep short-term losses even while geopolitical friction persists. The removal of tariffs imposed last year by the U.S. Supreme Court, along with the failure of AI bubble fears to materialize, has also supported investor confidence. He viewed the market’s lingering caution as constructive for stability.
That said, developments in the Middle East still carry material risk. Experts warned that if key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf were hit, global markets could come under serious pressure. A prolonged disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would sharply raise stagflation risk. Timmer also pointed to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.5% as a major variable to watch, while favoring diversification over concentrated exposure to a single tech stock.