Bitcoin is trading at a pivotal level, with analyst EGRAG CRYPTO pointing to a mid-cycle support zone that has repeatedly shaped previous market phases. On his chart, that level is marked by a red moving average. It has often separated trend continuation from broader correction, so the market focus has shifted away from short-term noise and back toward larger cycle structure.
The red moving average remains the line that matters
EGRAG CRYPTO argues that Bitcoin is still holding above this mid-cycle support. In prior cycles, price interaction around the same area often decided whether momentum would continue or fade into a deeper pullback. As long as Bitcoin stays above the red moving average, his core bullish structure remains intact. Volatility may persist in the short run, but he does not see a confirmed structural breakdown yet.
He also noted that similar formations appeared in earlier cycles, when Bitcoin briefly touched both the red and orange moving averages before expanding sharply higher. That recurring setup makes the current range look more like preparation than weakness. The ongoing compression inside this zone also points to lower volatility, and that type of squeeze has often come before a strong directional move.
$105,000 remains the first major upside target
Within his primary bullish case, EGRAG CRYPTO identifies $105,000 as the first major target. If support continues to hold, he also sees room for a later extension toward $165,000. He does not frame that higher target as immediate. Instead, $105,000 is the nearer level to watch, while $165,000 belongs to a longer-term expansion scenario.
His cycle reading is based on a repeated sequence: consolidation first, expansion after. The current structure fits that historical rhythm, in his view, with Bitcoin spending time in compression before a larger move develops. That is why he treats the present phase as consolidation within trend rather than an early sign of reversal.
The bearish setup stays inactive unless weekly support breaks
The bearish case is still on the table, but only conditionally. According to the analyst, it would activate only if Bitcoin closes below the red moving average on the weekly timeframe. If that breakdown is confirmed, the market could shift into a deeper correction, with $40,000 marked as a possible reset level.
His probability split is direct: Bitcoin reaching $105,000 carries an 85% chance, while the bearish outcome is assigned 15%. He also mentioned the $165,000 to $200,000 range as a longer-term possibility, not an immediate destination. For now, Bitcoin remains at a critical structural level, and the historical pattern he cited still favors continuation as long as the key support is not lost on a weekly close.