Bitcoin was trading around $62,150 at the time of the analysis after slipping below a rising neckline near $63,000 and the 200-period weekly moving average around $62,450. On the four-hour chart, analysts identified a head-and-shoulders formation, putting $57,500 on the table as a possible short-term downside target. The chart setup is clear, and the market is reacting to it.
Between current levels and $57,500, analysts describe $59,300 as the main support area. That zone sits close to the 50-period monthly moving average near $59,330, which still stands out as an important higher-timeframe support. If Bitcoin breaks through that area as well, the move would weaken the broader structure and could leave the second-quarter close looking soft, with selling pressure carrying into the third quarter.
Bearish setup stays active unless buyers reclaim the neckline
The short-term bearish case rests on Bitcoin trading below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern. Analysts say that break strengthens the downside scenario. A reversal is still possible, but it requires buyers to push price back above the neckline and reclaim the right-shoulder region. If that happens, the pattern would no longer be treated as valid.
For that recovery case, the first level to watch is roughly $65,500. The analysis says a move above that area would be the initial sign that sellers are losing control. If momentum keeps building after that, $71,000 becomes the next major technical target, and a rally toward that level could indicate that Bitcoin is forming a local bottom.
Long-term regression channel keeps broader support in view
On a wider time frame, Bitcoin is trading close to the lower boundary of a long-term regression channel. The source notes that this area has historically lined up with major market bottoms, which is why it remains a focal point even while short-term weakness persists. Analyst CW highlighted three important levels on the chart: red support, green linear regression, and purple resistance.
Bitcoin staying below the green regression curve suggests the broader bullish phase is still unconfirmed. According to CW, earlier bull cycles only started to gain real momentum after price held consistently above that line. In the current cycle, Bitcoin has not managed to maintain that position, so the market is being read more as sideways consolidation and accumulation than a confirmed breakout. If the lower channel boundary holds, a recovery base could still form; if the red support fails, the risk of a deeper correction rises.