Bitcoin has spent the past 25 days trading in a $62,000 to $75,000 range. At the time cited in the source article, BTC changed hands at $70,748, up 1.3% on the day. The move was linked to reported peace talks between the US and Iran, while improving fund flows also helped sentiment after spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $2.5 billion in inflows over the past month.
Tighter exchange supply has not pushed BTC above $75K
Several data points in the report suggest the market has support under the surface. A short squeeze may have added to buying activity, with short liquidations rising to $48.2 million on the day. Glassnode data showed 10,485 BTC left exchanges over the past week, bringing exchange balances down to a record low of 2.4 million BTC. Long-term holders also expanded their positions, adding roughly 33,000 BTC over the past month.
Even so, Bitcoin remains below $75,000. The article’s explanation is simple: supply is tight, but demand is not strong enough. Investors are still showing hesitation, and that lack of decisive buying pressure has kept BTC locked inside its recent range instead of turning exchange outflows and accumulation into a breakout.
Analysts split between a $60K floor and a deeper drop
The debate over Bitcoin’s next move has become sharper. One bearish argument points to past market cycles, where major declines appeared roughly 850 days after a halving. With the market sitting around 700 days after the 2024 halving, some analysts see a familiar setup taking shape. K33 Research backs that cautious view and identifies $60,000 as a likely upcoming bottom, citing negative funding as a driver.
The report also highlights Bitcoin’s “electrical cost,” or miners’ break-even production price, which fell from $70,000 in Q4 2025 to below $60,000. In past cycles, weaker miner profitability has lined up with price floor zones. That reading has supported forecasts from analysts, including those cited from Kalshi prediction markets, that place a possible low near $48,000.
Macro signals keep both bullish and bearish cases alive
Not everyone is leaning lower. More constructive traders argue that Bitcoin could still enter an uptrend, pointing to historical periods when BTC strength coincided with rising gold prices. On the other side, gold bull Peter Schiff warned that inflation pressure tied to higher oil prices could trigger a broader financial crisis. The source article leaves the near-term direction open, with geopolitical tension and future Federal Reserve action presented as the main catalysts.
That leaves the market in a familiar position: ETF inflows are improving, exchange balances are shrinking, and long-term holders are adding coins, yet price action still reflects caution. Whether Bitcoin breaks higher from this range or first tests lower support remains unresolved.