On September 5, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) held steady just above the $56,000 mark, sparking ongoing debates about its market direction. Some speculate that bitcoin might be entering a bearish phase, while others still see potential for a bullish breakout. CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, weighed in on the discussion, stating the drop in bitcoin's price was due to a lack of demand growth. However, other voices in the crypto space argue that the current downtrend might be setting the stage for an impressive upswing in bitcoin's value.
Demand Decline Weighs on Price, Key Support Levels Under Watch
“Bitcoin price is down simply because there is no demand growth. Indeed, demand is declining right now. Basically, all valuation metrics are in bearish territory,” Moreno wrote on X. He added that the key price level to watch is $55,500 – the trader’s onchain realized price lower band. When asked whether he believed BTC would hit all-time highs in Q4, Moreno responded: “Unfortunately, nobody knows that. That’s why we monitor demand and other metrics. Yes, seasonality is positive in Q4. But it also depends on the overall economic and bitcoin market conditions.”
Optimists: Extreme Bearish Sentiment Often Precedes Reversals
Meanwhile, as bitcoin continues to languish, some are confident that an unexpected twist could be just around the corner. “Crypto Twitter feels like a ghost town, and most of the big YouTube influencers have finally turned bearish. That’s exactly when bitcoin might surprise everyone and do bitcoin things,” the X account Cryptomoon remarked. Another X user cited that “Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply is trending up. Not the time to be bearish.” Sharing a chart, the X account The Gold Prairie wrote: “I’m sick of this range, just like you. But maaaaan, does this look good. How can you be bearish on this setup?”
Q4 Seasonality vs. Data Uncertainty
Historically, Q4 has been a strong quarter for bitcoin, especially during bull run years. Yet, as Moreno stressed, no one can predict the future with certainty. While data and charts provide useful hints, the market has a way of catching even the experts off guard. In the unpredictable world of crypto assets, surprises are always around the corner. The market remains divided between bearish caution and bullish optimism. The coming weeks could reveal whether bitcoin will defy historical trends or remain constrained by stagnant demand and fading interest. Many believe Q4 will bring some excitement, but uncertainty looms large.