Market Overview: Five-Wave Correction Nears Completion
This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is executing a clear five-wave corrective structure on the 4-hour timeframe (Wave 39 to Wave 44), currently in the final '43-44' leg. The location of 'End Point 44' will determine the short-term direction: if above the prior low of 58,110, a technical bounce is likely, potentially leading to a wide consolidation range; if below 58,110 but with bullish momentum divergence, the bounce strength is uncertain; if below without divergence, further breakdown is possible. The in-house quantitative model assigns higher probability to the first two scenarios.
BTC Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy
Key Resistance Levels: First resistance zone 60,900–62,300 (previous high/low), second resistance 65,500, third resistance 67,300–69,500. Key Support: Focus on the 58,100 area. Medium-term Strategy: Price has broken below the multi-bar channel, confirming bearish dominance. Maintain a 20% short position. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% position with 30/60-minute charts to scalp based on support/resistance. Three pre-set plans (A/B/C) dynamically address market evolution.
HYPE Technical Analysis & Short-Term Tactics
HYPE initiated a correction from the June 16 high of 76.94 (Point 51), forming a five-wave structure (51-56) on the 4-hour. The formation of 'End Point 56' is critical: if above the prior low, a double bottom reversal is probable. Support zones are at 58.8 and deeper 52–54. The short-term strategy is 'buy on dips, avoid chasing.' When price stabilizes in support areas with model signals, traders can enter light longs with position strictly below 30% and tight stop-losses.
Trade Verification & Risk Disclaimer
Following signals from the spread-trading model and momentum model, two BTC short trades were executed last week (1x leverage): first opened at 64,530 with 15% size, closed at 62,474 for 3.18% profit; second opened at 62,679, closed at 60,775 for 3.03% profit. Total profit 6.21%. Disclaimer: Financial markets are volatile. This content is personal trading log and not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.
