Bitcoin's price has been stuck in a sideways drift, stirring up market emotions. Long-term holders feel uneasy, while skeptics celebrate online. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas weighed in on X, calling the reaction "shortsighted."
Data Speaks: Two-Year Return Comparison
Balchunas stretched the comparison back to 2022, before BlackRock filed for its Bitcoin spot ETF. Since then, Bitcoin surged 429%, gold gained 177%, silver rose 350%, and the tech-heavy QQQ advanced just 140%. He noted that Bitcoin "left other assets in the dust" in 2023 and 2024, and even after entering a "coma-like" consolidation phase, the cumulative returns of those other assets, after their own best years, still can't catch up.
'Narrative Got Priced in Early'
Balchunas offered a straightforward explanation: the "institutionalization" narrative for Bitcoin was priced in quickly and prematurely, before it actually happened. The entry of firms like BlackRock and the launch of spot ETFs were stories destined to be amplified by capital, but the market essentially "priced in the future" ahead of time, leaving prices to rest while actual inflows and allocations slowly follow. He ended his post with a near-comforting tone, saying Bitcoin's past two years still dwarf other assets, and for holders worried about recent weakness: "Feeling better now? You're welcome."
Low-Point Math vs. Full Cycle Math
The post drew alternative views. User @BitcoinIsaiah pointed out that measuring from the 2022 bottom "is convenient," but comparing a full cycle to another full cycle could yield a different picture. Another user cross-referenced asset prices: Bitcoin priced in gold is near January 2021 levels, and in silver near December 2017 levels, suggesting the story changes depending on the yardstick. These responses highlight an old problem: returns depend on where you start counting. From the bear market trough, Bitcoin looks like a high-volatility growth asset; over longer frames or against hard assets, the curve looks less impressive. For professional investors, this is not just a debate—it's a choice of narrative for an asset class.
What's the New Narrative?
In subsequent replies, Balchunas posed the question: "What is Bitcoin's market narrative now?" His answer: Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need a flashy new story, because "debt and currency debasement" will expand year after year, becoming an ever-larger theme. The market now offers "simpler, safer, cheaper" access via products like BlackRock's spot ETF, letting both institutions and retail buy Bitcoin through familiar brokerages and fund platforms. In his view, Bitcoin is not at the end of the previous narrative; rather, the story is mid-act, characters are on stage, and the remaining work is time and position adjustments. For the crypto crowd hyper-sensitive to short-term price moves, one red candle or green candle can rob them of sleep—that's the price of spending too much time online.
Above is not investment advice.